The most dangerous moment in the Middle East in recent years?

Analysis of Tehran’s retaliatory attack on Israel and what might happen next. APRIL 16, 2024  |  [VIEW IN BROWSER](  |  [SUBSCRIBE](     Israel’s war cabinet, chaired by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (third from left), holds a meeting to discuss the drone attack launched by Iran in Tel Aviv, Israel, on April 14. Israeli Government Press Office/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images This past weekend, Iran launched its first-ever direct attack on Israel with hundreds of suicide attack drones, as well as cruise and ballistic missiles, in response to an Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus in early April. Even as the attack appeared calibrated to avoid a full-scale war, Iran’s decision to retaliate [surprised experts](, FP’s Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer report. “Iran has [crossed a Rubicon](, although it may not recognize it,” Daniel Byman and Kenneth M. Pollack argue in their analysis. In making a direct attack, Iran “opens the door to Israel now doing the same, and Israel can do far more damage to Iran than Iran can to Israel.” Byman and Pollack cite reasons why Israel may not look to escalate—yet heightened tensions with Iran are a “[lifeline](” for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the International Crisis Group’s Mairav Zonszein writes. “Gaza is suddenly out of sight,” Zonszein argues, and facing the risk of a larger and deadlier regional war, “Washington must now engage and deepen cooperation” with the embattled Israeli leader. The Biden administration has only [itself to blame]( for this precarious situation, FP columnist Stephen M. Walt writes. “Giving Israel unconditional support gave its leaders little incentive to heed U.S. calls for restraint,” Walt argues, “so it is hardly surprising that they have ignored them,” including by bombing the Damascus consular building on April 1. But while U.S. President Joe Biden’s “logic has [incentivized Netanyahu]( to attack Iran,” as the Quincy Institute’s Trita Parsi writes, there is still a way out—and Parsi outlines the steps Biden must take now to avoid war.—The Editors P.S. LAST CALL: The results of India’s general elections, which kick off this week, will have global implications. Stay up to date with FP’s new Spring 2024 magazine,“[The India Issue](,” on how this burgeoning middle power continues to transform—and secure your own copy of the magazine by [joining FP]( and setting delivery preferences by the end of today.   New and Noteworthy - Not Enough Troops: As NATO prepares this year for potential attacks from Russia, it also struggles with declining manpower. Among many factors, the “lack of an existential U.S. national security threat” could be driving recruitment numbers to the lowest they’ve been in decades across the United States, Germany, and other countries, FP’s Jack Detsch [writes](. - Converging on Venezuela: “There is a rare degree of alignment in both Democratic and Republican foreign-policy circles” when it comes to Venezuela, Geoff Ramsey and Caleb McCarry [writes](. “Maximum pressure” campaigns to create a democratic opening in Venezuela were executed under both Biden and former President Donald Trump, and the outcome of this year’s elections is unlikely to sway Washington’s approach to Venezuela, they argue. - Where Politics Makes No Sense: Civil War, a new movie from British writer and director Alex Garland, imagines a version of the United States where political rifts and animosity have exploded into chaos, alliances, and war. Garland’s “big artistic swing is obscuring U.S. politics from the disaster that’s unfolding on the screen. As such, he makes the insanity of civil war that much clearer,” Jordan Hoffman [writes]( in a review.   Unlimited analysis, arguments, ideas and more. [Read anywhere. Cancel anytime.](   [FP Live]( The New Idea of India April 16 | 11 a.m. EDTJoin executive editor Amelia Lester in conversation with editor in chief Ravi Agrawal, who wrote the lead essay, “[The New Idea of India](,” in Foreign Policy’s new Spring 2024 issue. Agrawal explores how Modi’s vision of the country prioritizes religion and culture above liberalism. He argues that the prime minister’s enduring popularity may have as much to do with demand as it does supply—a theory that helps explain India’s growing assertiveness in global affairs. [Register now](. Inside the GOP’s Foreign PolicyApril 22 | 12 p.m. EDTWhat would a second Trump term mean for U.S. foreign policy? FP columnist Matthew Kroenig will join FP Live to elaborate on his new book, We Win, They Lose: Republican Foreign Policy & the New Cold War. He will also open up his notebook to discuss which policymakers currently animate Trump’s foreign-policy thinking. [Register now](. The Crisis in HaitiOn DemandJacqueline Charles, a reporter for the Miami Herald who has covered Haiti for more than a decade, and Jake Johnston, the author of Aid State: Elite Panic, Disaster Capitalism, and the Battle to Control Haiti, joined FP Live to discuss how the international community should aid Haitians amid gang violence, food shortage, and government disarray. [Watch]( the conversation now, or [read]( the edited transcript.   Exercise Your Mind Mexico requested that which Latin American country be suspended from the United Nations last Thursday? - Peru - Ecuador - Nicaragua - Argentina You can find the answer to this question and learn more at the end of this email.   FROM FP EVENTS [Ensuring Economic Equity for Women]( On the heels of the 68th Commission on the Status of Women, join Foreign Policy at the sixth annual Her Power summit this Thursday. Hear from policymakers, global innovators, and the private sector as they bridge the conversation on how economic empowerment for women is economic empowerment for the world. Free and open to all. [LEARN MORE](   Most Popular [U.S. Air Force personnel stand on a Boeing C-17 Globemaster III as it prepares to deliver aid intended for the Gaza Strip at El Arish International Airport in Arish, Egypt, on Dec. 5, 2023. ]( [U.S. Foreign Aid Is Broken but Fixable]( Donald Trump’s threats to cut all spending can spur actual changes. By Walter Kerr, Amanda Arch [Protesters demand the departure of the U.S. military from Niger in the country's capital, Niamey, on April 13. ]( [Washington’s Failed Africa Policy Needs a Reset]( Instead of trying to put out security fires, U.S. policy should focus on governance and growth. By Daniel Twining, Will Meeker [Displaced Palestinian children pose for photos standing in front of makeshift tents at a camp beside a street in Rafah on March 14.]( [The Economics of Humanitarian Aid to Gaza]( Will Palestinians ever recover from the famine and destruction? 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By Matthew Kroenig, Dan Negrea   From Around FP - Wins From FP Studios: [FP Live](, a live video series featuring global leaders and experts, and [Ones and Tooze](, FP’s weekly economics podcast, are both nominated for the [2024 Publisher Podcast Awards](, which celebrate podcasts created within a broader publishing company. Ones and Tooze was also an honoree in this year’s [Webby Awards](, the leading international award honoring excellence on the internet. Finally, [The Negotiators](, a series on global high-stakes negotiations created in partnership with Doha Debates, won best podcast at the [2024 Digital Media Americas Awards](. [Explore]( all of Foreign Policy’s podcasts today. - After the Iran-Israel Escalation: Iran’s direct attack on Israel opens a new chapter in Middle East power politics. Where does the world economy go next? Get FP columnist Adam Tooze’s take in the latest edition of [Chartbook](.   Are you interested in learning more about FP Analytics’ cutting-edge research services, hosting an FP Virtual Dialogue event, or building a podcast with FP Studios? [Explore partnership opportunities](. Answer: B. Ecuador. Ecuadorian police stormed the Mexican Embassy in Quito on April 5 to arrest a former Ecuadorian vice president who was sheltering in the building. The move violated diplomatic norms and has fractured Mexican-Ecuadorian relations, FP’s Catherine Osborn [writes]( in Latin America Brief. [Out Now: FP’s Spring 2024 Magazine]( [Ahead of a major election year, "The India Issue" explores how India has been transforming before the world's eyes. Explore all essays in the magazine, out now.]( [READ THE ISSUE]( [Subscribe to Foreign Policy]( [The world, at your fingertips]( Keeping up with global moments has never been more essential. Save up to 50% when you join our community of readers today. 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