Afghanistan returns to the headlines

Plus, Russia is back to its Stalinist future MARCH 26, 2024  |  [VIEW IN BROWSER](  |  [SUBSCRIBE](     Afghans watch television coverage announcing the killing of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden at an electronics store in Kabul on May 2, 2011. Majid Saeedi/Getty Images In this newsletter, FP’s executive editor, Amelia Lester, connects different stories to explore a theme in geopolitics. The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for Friday’s attack on a concert venue near Moscow that killed 137 people. American officials place the blame with the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), a branch from Afghanistan that carried out the suicide bombing at the international airport in Kabul in August 2021. While the Taliban have been fighting IS-K since U.S. withdrawal, largely preventing it from making strategic gains, the group’s resurgence internationally suggests what happens within Afghanistan’s borders rarely stays there. In fact, “much as it did before masterminding the 9/11 attacks,” FP’s Lynne O’Donnell [writes]( that a different terrorist group—al Qaeda—is using plundered resource wealth from the Taliban to run militant training camps and boost the coffers of affiliated jihadi groups worldwide. A copy of a recent report by a private, London-based threat analysis firm and provided to O’Donnell suggests that al Qaeda is “raking in tens of millions of dollars a week from gold mines” in Afghanistan’s north, which are protected by warlords friendly to the Taliban. For Western governments pondering a closer relationship with the Taliban or even diplomatic recognition, the report sounds a warning that the group remains one of the prime sponsors of terrorism worldwide. Another full-circle moment came a week ago in Russia, when state election officials reported 87 percent of voters had opted for Vladimir Putin in the national elections. “Not only were many of the reported election numbers [mathematically impossible](,” writes the Atlantic Council’s Adrian Karatnycky, “but there was also no longer much of a choice: All prominent opposition figures had been either [murdered](, [imprisoned](, or [exiled](.” In “[Russia Is Back to the Stalinist Future](,” Karatnycky argues that Russia’s return to Soviet practice goes far beyond elections—and that Putin now resembles Joseph Stalin more closely than any other Soviet or Russian leader. Meeting the threat Putin poses, Karatnycky writes, “will require as much consistency and as deep a commitment as when the West faced down Stalin’s Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War.”—Amelia Lester P.S. A note from our partners: The world’s largest ideas and music festival HowTheLightGetsIn returns to Hay-on-Wye from May 24 to 27 and will feature a stellar line-up of Nobel Prize winners and global thought leaders, alongside a host of award-winning musicians and comedians. Check out the festival’s newly [released program]( and don’t miss out on an exclusive 30% off tickets with code FPH30. Can’t attend in person? Don’t worry. The festivals online platform [IAI.TV]( has a wealth of festival content to enjoy. [Check out all their live debates and talks here.](   New and Noteworthy - A Strategic Liability: From Israel’s formation in 1948, American support for the state has been a constant part of the U.S. Middle East policy. Yet the Israeli response to Hamas’s attack on Oct. 7 has escalated to a historic and deadly scale—and the status quo has remained untouched. “It’s past time for a fundamental reevaluation of the U.S.-Israel relationship,” Jon Hoffman [argues](, as the merit of remaining in “this unidirectional relationship remains unclear.” - Make a Living, Not War: Domestic tensions in China have altered the public sentiment toward Taiwan, Tao Wang [argues](. Just a few years ago, every general election in Taiwan would be met with a “wave of pro-war fever” in favor of political unification. Now, the recent Taiwan elections “triggered a flood of complaints” arising from dissatisfaction with China’s economic slowdown. - Moldova’s Fate: Before the [war in Ukraine]( broke out in 2022, Moldova had a fragmented landscape of political aspirations, from “greater Romanian nationalism to Soviet nostalgia, from pro-Russia patriotism to civic pride in an independent, EU-embedded Moldova.” Now, the future of the former Soviet republic is unclear. “If there’s one thing that just about all of Moldova’s peoples agree upon, regardless of political ideology, it is that they have next to no agency to affect the fate of their country,” Paul Hockenos [writes](.   Unlimited analysis, arguments, ideas and more. [Read anywhere. Cancel anytime.](   FP Live [The Moscow Concert Attack and the Threat of ISIS]( March 26 | 11 a.m. ETOn Friday, March 22, four armed gunmen carried out an attack on a suburban concert venue in Moscow, killing at least 137 people. It was one of the worst terrorist attacks in Russia in decades. U.S. officials said the atrocity was the work of the Islamic State-Khorasan, or IS-K. Why did IS-K pick Russia as a target? What might its attack mean for terrorism globally? What other groups, such as al Qaeda and Hamas, represent major global threats? Join FP Live for a discussion with Colin P. Clarke, a senior research fellow at the Soufan Center and a regular contributor to Foreign Policy. [Register now](. [Richard Haass on Foreign Policy in an Election Year]( On DemandAs U.S. President Joe Biden increasingly turns his attention to the campaign trail, how will two major conflicts in Europe and the Middle East play into his foreign policy? How much will the White House adjust its thinking based on public opinion? Richard Haass is a former head of the State Department’s policy-planning team and led the Council on Foreign Relations for two decades. He joined FP’s Ravi Agrawal for a wide-ranging conversation about Biden’s foreign policy. [Watch]( the conversation now, or [read]( the edited transcript. [The View From the Middle East]( On DemandWhile the White House has begun to shift its rhetoric on Israel and the unfolding humanitarian crisis in Gaza, perceptions of the United States in the Middle East are declining. According to Mina Al-Oraibi, the editor in chief of a top daily UAE newspaper, the National, this is the lowest point for U.S. policy in the Middle East this century. She joined FP’s Ravi Agrawal to discuss how the conflict looks from her vantage point in Abu Dhabi. [Watch]( the conversation now, or [read]( the edited transcript.   Exercise Your Mind The United Nations General Assembly unanimously agreed on Thursday to pass a resolution concerning what issue? - Preventing human rights abuses - Artificial intelligence - Native languages preservation - Regulations around cybercrime You can find the answer to this question and learn more at the end of this email.   Most Popular [America Has a Resilience Problem]( The chair of the Federal Trade Commission makes the case for competition in an increasingly consolidated world. By Lina M. Khan [U.N. Security Council members vote on a U.S.-led resolution for a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war at the United Nations headquarters in New York City on March 22.]( [What the Latest U.N. Cease-Fire Vote Means]( The U.S.-led resolution signals a subtle shift in the Biden administration’s stance on the Israel-Hamas war. By Amy Mackinnon [Supporters of the Aam Aadmi Party protest the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal in New Delhi on March 22.]( [Indian Opposition Leader Arvind Kejriwal Arrested on Graft Charges]( Protesters accused the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party of orchestrating a smear campaign against the opposition ahead of general elections. By Alexandra Sharp [The United States Has Less Leverage Over Israel Than You Think]( A close look at the foundations of U.S. influence—and the lack of it. By Stephen M. Walt [America Has a Resilience Problem]( The chair of the Federal Trade Commission makes the case for competition in an increasingly consolidated world. By Lina M. Khan [What the Latest U.N. Cease-Fire Vote Means](The U.S.-led resolution signals a subtle shift in the Biden administration’s stance on the Israel-Hamas war. By Amy Mackinnon [Indian Opposition Leader Arvind Kejriwal Arrested on Graft Charges](Protesters accused the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party of orchestrating a smear campaign against the opposition ahead of general elections. By Alexandra Sharp [The United States Has Less Leverage Over Israel Than You Think](A close look at the foundations of U.S. influence—and the lack of it. By Stephen M. Walt   From Around FP - Coming Soon: In a few weeks, readers will gain a thorough look at a country with the world’s fastest-growing major economy and an important upcoming national election: India. Get excited for FP’s upcoming Spring 2024 magazine issue, which focuses on how India has transformed in front of the world’s eyes (and right now, you can reserve your copy of the issue, the full 53-year magazine archive, exclusive content, and more [for up to 50 percent off](). In the meantime, explore the latest [Winter 2024 issue]( on the implications of national elections, including the United States and some of the world’s biggest democracies, this year. - The AI Era of Intelligence: On March 28, join Foreign Policy and the Special Competitive Studies Project for the [final installment in a six-part series]( on the future of artificial intelligence. Examine how intelligence organizations and officers are adapting to a new age of information and explore a technology-centered strategic approach to enable decisive offensive strategies and advanced defensive capabilities. - Ensuring Equity for Women: On the heels of the 68th Commission on the Status of Women concluding in New York City, and before the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., join Foreign Policy for the 6th annual [Her Power Summit](. Hear from policymakers, innovators, and business leaders as they bridge the conversation on how elevating women is vital for growth, peace, and security at this free event, in-person or virtual.   Are you interested in learning more about FP Analytics’ cutting-edge research services, hosting an FP Virtual Dialogue event, or building a podcast with FP Studios? [Explore partnership opportunities](. Answer: B. Artificial intelligence. The resolution included language ensuring that AI systems comply with human rights, but the U.N.’s lack of enforcement mechanisms may dilute the measure’s impact, FP’s Rishi Iyengar [reports](. [Subscribe to Foreign Policy]( [Save up to 50%]( [Choosing an annual plan for your FP subscription allows you to save up to 50%. For nuanced perspectives and insightful geopolitical analysis, subscribe today.]( [SUBSCRIBE NOW](   [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [Instagram]( [LinkedIn]( You’re receiving this email at {EMAIL} because you signed up for FP's This Week newsletter. 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