The case for optimism

Why the real Oppenheimer dismissed nuclear fatalism MARCH 19, 2024  |  [VIEW IN BROWSER](  |  [SUBSCRIBE](     Foreign Policy Illustration There aren’t many followers of world news who would describe themselves as optimists in 2024. But an alien observer sent undercover to Earth every half-century to account for the status of human life on the planet might just own the label. That’s according to a [provocative essay]( by Francis J. Gavin, a professor at SAIS-Johns Hopkins, who argues that this year—seen from a historical perspective—is by many metrics remarkable. “The incentives for states to fully mobilize their societies to pursue total wars of conquest … have all but disappeared,” he writes. You’ll need to read on to see how to square this assessment with the turmoil and violence across the world today—Gavin has a theory—but ultimately, his alien “reminds herself, and wishes the citizens of the planet could remember, that few living in 1974, 1924, or 1874 could have imagined the extraordinary progress earthlings have made since.” Speaking of 1974, Gavin reminds the reader that at that time, “Nuclear Armageddon hung like a sword of Damocles over the planet.” We are now in another era of rising nuclear disorder, and perhaps in a nod to that mood, Oppenheimer won Best Picture at this year’s Oscars. But while the movie invites despair, Jonathan R. Hunt, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, argues its titular character “was driven by a belief that nuclear weapons were manageable.” Drawing on evidence from the biography that inspired the film, Hunt advocates “for a broad swath of the public to approach the subject with the same sense of possibility, not futility, that Oppenheimer himself so believed in.”—The editors   New and Noteworthy - Sweden’s New Model Army: “In the face of renewed Russian aggression, what NATO needs most urgently is mass, in both active and reserve forces,” Gil Barndollar [writes](. Enter Sweden, NATO’s 32nd and newest member. Beyond its geographical opportunity for the alliance, Sweden in 2018 restored a conscription service in an attempt to bolster its military—and, since then, has seen success that NATO could learn from, Barndollar argues. - Preparing Russia’s Military: As the Ukraine war enters its third year, FP’s Amy Mackinnon [writes]( that reports from Estonia’s foreign and military intelligence chiefs present a red flag: the restructuring and expansion of Russia’s military in anticipation of a conflict with NATO in the next decade. - Violence Has Failed Palestinians: “Reliance on violence fuels a cycle of violence,” John Aziz [writes]( about the ongoing [Israel-Hamas war](. Hamas’s violence led to Israeli retaliation, subjecting the citizens of Gaza to deep humanitarian crises. On the other hand, nonviolent resistance has been met with “heavy-handed responses from Israeli security forces” in the past, among other challenges.   Unlimited analysis, arguments, ideas and more. [Read anywhere. Cancel anytime.](   FP Live [Richard Haass on Foreign Policy in an Election Year]( On DemandAs U.S. President Joe Biden increasingly turns his attention to the campaign trail, how will two major conflicts in Europe and the Middle East play into his foreign policy? How much will the White House adjust its thinking based on public opinion? Richard Haass is a former head of the State Department’s policy-planning team and led the Council on Foreign Relations for two decades. He joined FP’s Ravi Agrawal for a wide-ranging conversation about Biden’s foreign policy. [Watch]( the conversation now. [The View From the Middle East]( On DemandWhile the White House has begun to shift its rhetoric on Israel and the unfolding humanitarian crisis in Gaza, perceptions of the United States in the Middle East are declining. According to Mina Al-Oraibi, the editor in chief of top daily UAE newspaper the National, this is the lowest point for U.S. policy in the Middle East this century. She joined FP’s Ravi Agrawal to discuss how the conflict looks from her vantage point in Abu Dhabi. [Watch]( the conversation now, or [read]( the edited transcript. [Biden’s State of the Union]( On DemandWhen it comes to State of the Union addresses, domestic plans and pocketbook issues usually take precedence over foreign policy. But earlier this month, U.S. President Joe Biden attempted to connect the two: He drew a line between threats to democracy at home and abroad, presenting a stark choice for voters between himself and former President Donald Trump. Susan Glasser, a staff writer at the New Yorker and a former editor in chief of Foreign Policy, joined FP Live to discuss the speech and its implications ahead of a busy campaign season. [Watch]( the conversation now, or [read]( the edited transcript.   Exercise Your Mind Last Wednesday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly in favor of a bill that could ban which social media app? - Instagram - TikTok - Snapchat - BeReal You can find the answer to this question and learn more at the end of this email.   FROM FP EVENTS [FP at The Spring Meetings]( Foreign Policy will convene leaders as they gather for the World Bank/International Monetary Fund spring meetings in Washington, D.C., to examine the global economy, particularly as it relates to climate and gender equity. Save the date for the fourth annual [Climate Summit]( and the sixth annual [Her Power Summit]( for a conversation on how economic empowerment for women is economic empowerment for the world. [PARTNER WITH US](   From the Print Magazine The following is an excerpt from the recent [Winter ‘24 print issue](, which focused on countering the threats of populism, nationalism, and misinformation in a big election year. We will be releasing our Spring ‘24 print issue, all about India, very soon. [Become a subscriber]( to get every story, plus the upcoming print issue, today. 2024 is a big election year for the world: More than 50 countries are expected to hold national polls, including large but profoundly damaged democracies such as India, Indonesia, and the United States. Anxieties abound that social media, further weaponized with artificial intelligence, will play a destructive role in these elections. Pundits have worried that [technology might doom democracy]( since Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president in 2016. It’s true that social media can benefit aspiring autocrats. Populists in particular latch on to social media today as a way to connect directly with people, bypassing restraints on their behavior that political parties would have provided in the pre-internet age. They can also profit from echo chambers, which reinforce the sense that a whole people uniformly supports a populist leader. Yet social media is not inherently populist. And if populists do well this year, it will not be because there are no tools or strategies to stop them. To combat populism, democracies need political will. They must not only push for better platform design and regulation but also work to strengthen what some consider a thoroughly old-fashioned institution: political parties that have the capacity to rein in leaders threatening democracy. [CONTINUE READING](   Most Popular [An animated map of the world is seen at the media preview of the ]( [China Is Selectively Bending History to Suit Its Territorial Ambitions]( Beijing’s unwillingness to let go of certain claims suggests there’s more at stake than reversing past losses. By Frederik Kelter [Shops are closed at the Forest City Marina Hotel, located in the city of Gelang Patah in Malaysia’s Johor state, on Sept. 1, 2023. ]( [Malaysia’s Forest City Went From Boomtown to Ghost Town]( China’s real estate collapse is sinking projects beyond its borders. By Joseph Rachman [A protester burns tires during a demonstration calling for the resignation of acting Prime Minister Ariel Henry in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, on Feb. 7.]( [How the World Failed Haiti]( The country risks becoming an “open-air jail,” Haiti’s former foreign minister warns. By Robbie Gramer [People gather outside the Ghana High Commission on March 6 in London, to protest against Ghana's anti-LGBTQ+ bill, now delayed until the Supreme Court rules on a legal challenge. ]( [Homophobic Laws Threaten U.S.-Ghana Ties]( The West African nation has long enjoyed a special relationship with Washington—but proposed anti-gay legislation could imperil its economy. By Howard W. French [China Is Selectively Bending History to Suit Its Territorial Ambitions]( Beijing’s unwillingness to let go of certain claims suggests there’s more at stake than reversing past losses. By Frederik Kelter [Malaysia’s Forest City Went From Boomtown to Ghost Town](China’s real estate collapse is sinking projects beyond its borders. By Joseph Rachman [How the World Failed Haiti](The country risks becoming an “open-air jail,” Haiti’s former foreign minister warns. By Robbie Gramer [Homophobic Laws Threaten U.S.-Ghana Ties](The West African nation has long enjoyed a special relationship with Washington—but proposed anti-gay legislation could imperil its economy. By Howard W. French   From Around FP - The AI Era of Intelligence: On March 28, join Foreign Policy and the Special Competitive Studies Project for the [final installment in a six-part series]( on the future of artificial intelligence. Examine how intelligence organizations and officers are adapting to a new age of information and explore a technology-centered strategic approach to enable decisive offensive strategies and advanced defensive capabilities. - Assessing Gender Equality: The Hidden Economics of Remarkable Women (HERO) is a Foreign Policy production supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Buffett Institute at Northwestern University. This season, host Reena Ninan and reporters around the world are focusing on girls—how they are pushing for a brighter, more powerful future and what the rest of us can do to set them up for success. Look out for new episodes every Tuesday on [Apple](, [Spotify](, or wherever you enjoy podcasts. - How Does Russia Make Missiles: In his[latest Chartbook newsletter](, Adam Tooze examines how Russia makes its missiles and sustains high levels of output amid the war in Ukraine. Analyzing a [new report by Rhodus Intelligence](, Tooze explores Russia's history of machining and continued imports of CNC machine tools that “by the summer of 2023 were more than twice their prewar level.”   Are you interested in learning more about FP Analytics’ cutting-edge research services, hosting an FP Virtual Dialogue event, or building a podcast with FP Studios? [Explore partnership opportunities](. Answer: B. TikTok. The bill orders the China-based parent company of TikTok to sell the popular app or face the possibility of a complete ban from the United States, FP’s Rishi Iyengar [reports](. [Subscribe to Foreign Policy]( [Save up to 50%]( [Choosing an annual plan for your FP subscription allows you to save up to 50%. For nuanced perspectives and insightful geopolitical analysis, subscribe today.]( [SUBSCRIBE NOW](   [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [Instagram]( [LinkedIn]( You’re receiving this email at {EMAIL} because you signed up for FP's This Week newsletter. [MANAGE YOUR EMAIL PREFERENCES]( | [VIEW OUR PRIVACY POLICY]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Interested in partnering with FP on events, podcasts, or research? [Explore FP Solutions](. [Foreign Policy]( is a division of Graham Holdings Company. All contents © 2023 Graham Digital Holding Company LLC. All rights reserved. Foreign Policy, 655 15th St NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC, 20005.