FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

[FiveThirtyEight]( Popular in Politics Thursday, February, 29, 2024 [1. 12 Super Tuesday primaries to watch in Texas and North Carolina]( [12 Super Tuesday primaries to watch in Texas and North Carolina]( Next week, 15 states (plus American Samoa!) are holding primary elections on Super Tuesday, the busiest day in the primary calendar in presidential election years. But president, schmesident — the real primary action is further down the ballot! Races for the Senate, House and governor are all heating up and worth a look. [Read more]( [2. Could Arab American and Muslim voters cost Biden the 2024 election?]( [Could Arab American and Muslim voters cost Biden the 2024 election?]( On Tuesday, President Joe Biden [won the Democratic primary in Michigan]( with 81 percent of the vote — and yet it was his opponents who claimed victory. [Read more]( [3. What 538's new primary polling averages say about 3 key Senate races]( [What 538's new primary polling averages say about 3 key Senate races]( Here at 538, we have polling averages that track public opinion in a number of different areas, including [presidential job approval]( [presidential primaries]( and [the favorability]( of [high-profile politicians](. These trackers form part of our core mission of using [public opinion data]( to keep our readers up to date with what's happening across the political landscape. [Read more]( [4. Overseas conflicts are sparking strife in US party politics]( [Overseas conflicts are sparking strife in US party politics]( Both Democrats and Republicans are facing intraparty conflict over foreign policy, Democrats over the war in Gaza and Republicans over the war in Ukraine. Could these conflicts help determine who wins the presidency in November? [Read more]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe](