FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

[FiveThirtyEight]( Popular in Politics Thursday, February, 01, 2024 [1. This could be the shortest presidential primary ever]( [This could be the shortest presidential primary ever]( New York Yankees great Yogi Berra [purportedly once said]( "it ain't over till it's over" — that an outcome isn't final until a competition's participants have played out the entire contest. [Read more]( [2. How often every member of Congress voted with Biden in 2023]( [How often every member of Congress voted with Biden in 2023]( Even for a divided Congress, the 118th Congress so far has been [historically unproductive](. That's in no small part because the House devoted much of its floor time to partisan bills with no chance of advancing in the Senate — not to mention two protracted periods where the House had no speaker. [Read more]( [3. Immigration is driving support for Trump more than in 2016]( [Immigration is driving support for Trump more than in 2016]( Former President Donald Trump's[signature campaign issue]( of immigration[immediately helped fuel]( his remarkable rise to the top of the [Republican primary polls in 2015](. In a [2018 study]( political scientists John Sides, Lynn Vavreck and I found that negative views of immigrants were a strong and consistent predictor of Republicans' support for Trump in the primaries — from the very start of his campaign in June 2015 up until he formally accepted the GOP nomination in July 2016. [Read more]( [4. What are the best pollsters in America?]( [What are the best pollsters in America?]( With former President Donald Trump’s recent Republican presidential primary victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, we can now say [with near certainty]( that the 2024 general election will feature a rematch between President Joe Biden and his predecessor. Both the stakes of the election and the odds of the outcome are of great importance, and people will be paying them a lot of attention over the next 10 months. And if social media conversations and news coverage about the primary are any indication, public opinion polls will feature very heavily in the discourse about the general election. [Read more]( [5. How Americans feel about the economy]( [How Americans feel about the economy]( The conventional wisdom is that the economy and a president’s fate are closely tied. For much of Joe Biden’s presidency, part of the story has been that despite a strong labor market and economic growth, views of the economy and Biden’s handling of it have been abysmal. [Read more]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe](