Morning Distribution for Thursday, February 1, 2024

[FiveThirtyEight]( Morning Distribution Thursday, February, 01, 2024 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [This could be the shortest presidential primary ever]( [This could be the shortest presidential primary ever]( By [Geoffrey Skelley](/author/geoffrey_skelley) New York Yankees great Yogi Berra [purportedly once said]( "it ain't over till it's over" — that an outcome isn't final until a competition's participants have played out the entire contest. But when it comes to the 2024 Republican presidential nomination race, the end of the road looks to be nearing. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley [has vowed to carry her challenge]( against former President Donald Trump to her home state of South Carolina, which votes on Feb. 24. Yet her prospects there look poor: Trump leads Haley by more than 30 percentage points in 538's [South Carolina polling average](. A Trump victory of that magnitude would make it difficult for Haley to continue garnering the financial support needed to keep campaigning — if she even wants to risk further damage to her political stature with sizable defeats in races beyond South Carolina, such as the last February contest, Michigan's primary, on Feb. 27. Should Haley quit by late February, the 2024 Republican race would rank as the shortest highly contested presidential primary since the modern nomination process took shape in the 1970s. Competitive primaries — even ones involving incumbents — have usually gone through a fair number of elections with multiple active contenders, even when the outcome was no longer in doubt. But Trump's quasi-incumbent status, with his deep hold over the Republican Party, has created the conditions for an unusually brief race. By late February, at most five states (plus the U.S. Virgin Islands) will have cast ballots. This would beat out the current records for the earliest end date (March 3 in the [2004 Democratic]( contest) and the lowest number of voting states (19 in the [2000 Democratic]( race). Trump could win faster than anyone before The date a presidential primary effectively ended and the number of total days and contests during the competitive period, based on highly contested presidential nomination races from 1976 to 2020 Year Party Presumptive nominee Effectively over Total days Total contests 2020 D Joe Biden April 8, 2020 66 28 2016 D Hillary Clinton June 7, 2016 128 50 2016 R Donald Trump May 4, 2016 94 41 2012 R Mitt Romney April 10, 2012 99 32 2008 D Barack Obama June 3, 2008 153 51 2008 R John McCain March 4, 2008 62 39 2004 D John Kerry March 3, 2004 45 30 2000 D Al Gore March 9, 2000 46 19 2000 R George W. Bush March 9, 2000 46 23 1996 R Bob Dole March 14, 1996 50 31 1992 D Bill Clinton March 19, 1992 39 27 1992 R George H.W. Bush* May 5, 1992 94 38 1988 D Michael Dukakis April 21, 1988 74 51 1988 R George H.W. Bush March 29, 1988 76 31 1984 D Walter Mondale July 16, 1984 148 51 1980 D Jimmy Carter* June 3, 1980 135 51 1980 R Ronald Reagan May 20, 1980 121 39 1976 D Jimmy Carter June 9, 1976 143 51 1976 R Gerald Ford* Aug. 16, 1976 211 51 *Incumbent president who faced a highly contested primary The effectively over date is when a candidate became the de facto nominee either by securing a majority of delegates or because all other viable competitors withdrew from the race by that date. The number of days a race was competitive includes both the first and last days of the period, and the number of contests in the competitive period includes contests in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Sources: Caitlin Jewitt, FrontloadingHQ, News Reports Measuring the effective end date of the competitive period of a nomination race depends on each cycle's results and how long candidates remain active. Drawing on political scientist Caitlin Jewitt's [work on presidential primary competition]( we can classify a candidate as their party's presumptive nominee either when all viable opponents have dropped out or when they clinch a delegate majority from the results of primaries and caucuses. Mathematically, Trump can't clinch a delegate majority this year until the March 12 primaries and caucuses, but he could sew up the nomination earlier if Haley were to suspend her campaign before then. In 2004, for instance, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry became the earliest presumptive nominee in modern times when his last viable opponent, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, [dropped out of the Democratic race on March 3](. A primary's length based on calendar date is something of a moving target. The first contest — traditionally the Iowa caucuses — sometimes happens earlier, sometimes later, while the gap between elections on the primary calendar can vary. The 2024 Republican contest's Jan. 15 start date was on the early side, historically, which has precipitated a potentially quick conclusion in terms of the race's calendar end date. This year's GOP calendar likely also played a role in reducing the number of contests candidates could remain viable for. Specifically, the first month and change of the Republican contest [is unusually devoid of activity]( with 41 days stretching from the Iowa caucuses through the South Carolina primary — the longest duration from first to last early states since Nevada [became an early-voting state]( in 2008. As a result, Trump could also become the presumptive nominee despite barely any states having voted. The previous record for fewest contests, the 2000 Democratic race, ended on March 9 when New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley [dropped out]( after 19 contests had taken place, leaving Vice President Al Gore as the presumptive winner. Despite that drawn-out early period, the 2024 Republican contest could be the shortest based on the overall length of the primary's competitive period, too, though defining that metric — and which candidates should count as viable — is not an exact science. Based on Jewitt's formulation, the 1992 Democratic contest is currently the shortest ever, having lasted 39 days from [Iowa's Feb. 10 caucuses]( through March 19, when former Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas [suspended his campaign]( and left Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton as the only viable Democratic contender. But the race technically kept going because a candidate with no chance of winning — former California Gov. Jerry Brown — stayed in to push a reform message on issues like [campaign finance](. Brown [gave Clinton a few scary moments]( too, including defeating Clinton in [Connecticut's March 24 primary]( and pushing Clinton in [New York's April 7 primary]( (Clinton finally [clinched a delegate majority]( in early June). If Haley sticks it out until South Carolina, the 2024 Republican race would last 41 days — a tad longer than that 39-day mark, but also arguably shorter because Brown remained a thorn in Clinton's side beyond it in the 1992 Democratic contest. Despite what Haley says publicly, though, an earlier withdrawal is still a live possibility. Haley is 52 years old and could still have a lengthy political career ahead of her, so she might eventually conclude that continuing could be counterproductive for her future prospects. Some party leaders [are calling for her to drop out]( and continuing to attack Trump, the party favorite, might hurt her image among influential Republicans as well as voters. Moreover, considering her deficit in South Carolina polls, she might also decide that carrying on isn't worth risking an ugly loss in her home state. Either way, Trump [looks nearly certain]( to win the GOP nomination — [barring something unexpected]( — as his strength in this primary has been akin to an incumbent president facing a notable primary challenger. Take Trump's showing in New Hampshire. He defeated Haley by 11 points, 54 percent to 43 percent, a margin not too different from that of Jimmy Carter in 1980 (10 points) and George H.W. Bush in 1992 (16 points), sitting presidents who each fended off meaningful challengers. He even did better than some incumbents, like Gerald Ford, who only beat Ronald Reagan by about 1 point in the 1976 GOP contest (Ford was an unusual case, too, [having not been elected president or even vice president](. Trump looked like a challenged incumbent in New Hampshire Vote share in the New Hampshire presidential primary for incumbent presidents and former presidents running again, 1972 to present Year Party Incumbent/former president Vote % Main opponent Vote % Margin 2024 R Donald Trump†54.4% Nikki Haley 43.3% 11.1 2024 D Joe Biden* 63.8 Dean Phillips 19.7 44.1 2020 R Donald Trump 84.4 Bill Weld 9.0 75.4 2012 D Barack Obama 80.9 Ed Cowan 1.6 79.3 2004 R George W. Bush 79.8 Richard Bosa 1.2 78.6 1996 D Bill Clinton 83.9 Pat Paulsen 1.1 82.8 1992 R George H.W. Bush 53.0 Pat Buchanan 37.4 15.6 1984 R Ronald Reagan 86.1 Harold Stassen 2.0 84.0 1980 D Jimmy Carter 47.1 Ted Kennedy 37.3 9.8 1976 R Gerald Ford 49.4 Ronald Reagan 48.0 1.4 1972 R Richard Nixon 67.6 Pete McCloskey 19.8 47.8 *Write-in †Former president The 2024 results are not yet final. Sources: CQ Press, FEC, N.H. Manual for the General Court, N.H. Secretary of State, N.H. Public Radio Election Stats That Trump has the look of a quasi-incumbent makes sense. He's [the first former president to make a comeback bid]( in the modern primary era, unlike past incumbents who lost reelection in that period, such as Carter and George H.W. Bush. Considering [60 percent or more of Republicans]( have consistently told pollsters that they don't think Trump legitimately lost the 2020 election, it follows that a large swath has shown little inclination to move on from him. Trump's hold over the GOP has also shown through his [high favorability ratings among Republicans]( and a large number of [endorsements from Republican elected officials]( who've [become a Trumpier group]( since Trump first ran for president. These factors also helped limit the size of the Republican candidate field in 2024 — it peaked at 11 "major" candidates [per 538's reckoning]( smaller than [the 2016 GOP or 2020 Democratic fields]( — as [many presidential aspirants]( who've [aligned themselves]( with Trump [opted not to run]( against him. Whether Haley fights on to South Carolina or beyond, Trump looks well positioned to do significantly better in upcoming contests than he did in New Hampshire. The Granite State's primary electorate [is comparatively moderate and less religious]( thanks to both the state's political makeup and its rules that permit independents to vote in the primary. Tellingly, [the New Hampshire exit poll]( found that about 3 in 4 self-identified Republicans preferred Trump to Haley, while Haley won about 3 in 5 of everyone else. Having that kind of lock on the party base clearly augurs well for Trump in South Carolina, where we can expect the electorate to be more conservative and rock-ribbed Republican. And if Haley can't perform well in her home state, it's even harder to imagine her doing well in the many states that vote on March 5 (Super Tuesday) that also have solidly conservative primary electorates, such as Alabama, Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas. All told, a potentially very short Republican primary and President Joe Biden's limited opposition for the Democratic nomination irreducibly point to an especially long general election campaign. That campaign, at least, won't be over until it's over, many months from now. [Read more]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe](