FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

[FiveThirtyEight]( Popular in Politics Thursday, January, 11, 2024 [1. What's each Republican candidate's path to the nomination?]( [What's each Republican candidate's path to the nomination?]( The 2024 Republican presidential primary is not currently competitive. Former President Donald Trump leads national primary polls with 60 percent of the vote, [according to our average](Our delegate benchmarks for the Republican presidential primary).* His closest rivals are 50 percentage points behind: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis polls in a distant second place with 12 percent of the vote, roughly tied with former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. All other candidates are currently polling below 5 percent. According to my modeling, those numbers give Trump at least a [9-in-10 chance of winning the nomination]( if past polling patterns hold. (Of course, history is not a complete guide to the future, so there's always a small chance [something unprecedented will happen]( [Read more]( [2. What's driving Haley's rise in the GOP primary polls?]( [What's driving Haley's rise in the GOP primary polls?]( Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is having a moment. At [11 percent nationally]( and [30 percent in New Hampshire]( she is polling higher than ever in the Republican presidential primary and has arguably eclipsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as the main alternative to former President Donald Trump. And, not surprisingly, it looks like the group of Republicans who were slowest to accept Trumpism are driving Haley's rise: college-educated voters. [Read more]( [3. Christie's withdrawal is good news for Haley]( [Christie's withdrawal is good news for Haley]( On Tuesday, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie [called the governor of New Hampshire a "liar"]( for suggesting that Christie was considering dropping out of the Republican presidential primary. Instead, Christie [insisted that he would remain in the race]( as long as he saw a viable path to the nomination. [Read more]( [4. What if Biden or Trump suddenly leaves the 2024 race?]( [What if Biden or Trump suddenly leaves the 2024 race?]( What would happen if a major-party candidate died or abruptly dropped out of the presidential race before Election Day? [Read more]( [5. The last debate before Iowa]( [The last debate before Iowa]( With just days until the Iowa caucuses, the crew reacts to a head-to-head debate between former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, as well as a town hall featuring former President Donald Trump. [Read more]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe](