FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

[FiveThirtyEight]( Popular in Politics Thursday, November, 09, 2023 [1. Where does the 2024 election stand one year out?]( [Where does the 2024 election stand one year out?]( American voters cast 158 million ballots in the 2020 presidential election. Yet the winner was ultimately decided by about 43,000 voters across Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin — the states that carried President Joe Biden over the 270 Electoral College votes he needed to win the presidency. The 2016 election, also closely contested, was similarly settled by about 78,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And if the 2024 election were held tomorrow, it would likely be very close too. [Read more]( [2. The latest updates on the 2024 Republican presidential primary]( [The latest updates on the 2024 Republican presidential primary]( Today, 538 unveiled its [2024 Republican primary dashboard]( featuring all of 538's coverage and trackers of the presidential primary in one place. The dashboard shows, at a glance, which candidate is leading in national polls, endorsements and favorability among Republican voters. These numbers will be updated in real time as new polls and endorsements are announced. The dashboard also contains a news feed of all of 538's analysis of the primary as well as updates from the campaign trail via ABC News reporters. [Visit the dashboard here]( [Read more]( [3. Who won the third Republican debate?]( [Who won the third Republican debate?]( Republican voters thought former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley turned in the strongest debate performance on Wednesday night, while businessman Vivek Ramaswamy’s rubbed many voters the wrong way. But when it comes to whom they might vote for, the debate doesn’t seem to have changed many voters’ minds. [Read more]( [4. How Trumpism took over the Michigan GOP — and tore a small community apart]( [How Trumpism took over the Michigan GOP — and tore a small community apart]( Marcia Mansaray has lived in Ottawa County, Michigan, her entire life: growing up, going to college, marrying and raising her children there. She thought she knew it well. But over the past several years, she said, she has watched her middle-class, family-oriented, historically Dutch community on the shores of Lake Michigan abandon the principles she always thought it held dear. [Read more]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe](