Morning Distribution for Friday, October 6, 2023

[FiveThirtyEight]( Morning Distribution Friday, October, 06, 2023 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [What could Laphonza Butler's appointment mean for the California Senate race?]( [What could Laphonza Butler's appointment mean for the California Senate race?]( By [Geoffrey Skelley](/author/geoffrey_skelley) On Sunday, California Gov. Gavin Newsom [appointed former Emily’s List president Laphonza Butler to the U.S. Senate]( to fill the seat left vacant by Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s death. Butler [took the oath of office Tuesday]( and the new senator will likely prove to be a solidly liberal vote out of the deep-blue state. But Butler’s appointment also inserts a potential wild card in the state’s 2024 Senate race, which has [been underway for months](. Importantly, Butler [has not said]( whether she will campaign for a full Senate term, leaving open the possibility that she could join an already crowded group of Democrats running for the seat. Although Newsom previously said he would make only an interim appointment, he [placed no limitations]( on his appointee campaigning for the seat. Butler would face challenges in such a campaign, including low name recognition and the need to quickly ramp up fundraising. However, her [background and involvement in interest groups]( with close ties to the Democratic Party could make her a credible contender. And even if Butler doesn’t run, Feinstein’s death will precipitate a special election [that will coincide with the regular contest]( which could impact the race in different ways. A potential Butler campaign would have to overcome the three main Democratic contenders who’ve been actively campaigning since early 2023: Reps. Barbara Lee, Katie Porter and Adam Schiff. [Feinstein announced her retirement]( in February, [but Porter]( and [Schiff had already declared]( their candidacies, with Lee [formally entering the race soon after]( Feinstein’s announcement. Now, [California uses a top-two primary]( which means all candidates regardless of party run together and the leading two vote-getters advance to the November election. So if Butler ran, she wouldn’t necessarily need to win the primary to have a shot at keeping her seat — just finish in first or second. Since California implemented this system, two Democrats have advanced to the general election in two of the past four regular Senate races, thanks to the state’s disproportionate share of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters. But it would be no easy feat to even finish second. Schiff and Porter have been fundraising dynamos, a boon to their chances in a huge state where campaign advertising is quite expensive (California has [four of the 30 largest television markets]( in the country). Schiff [had already banked $21 million]( from previous House races [in his uncompetitive district]( giving him a leg up on his opponents. ([Schiff just announced]( that he had $32 million in his campaign account at the end of September, although we won’t have official reports for third-quarter fundraising [until mid-October]( Although she [had to spend more]( to defend her [competitive House seat]( in 2022, Porter still had more than $7 million to begin with and had brought in $7.6 million from contributors as of June 30. Meanwhile, Lee is left hoping that her position as [arguably the most progressive candidate]( in the race will help her overcome her smaller war chest. Leading Democrats have campaigned, fundraised for months The campaign information, ideological positioning and fundraising data for the three principal Democratic candidates already running in California’s 2024 Senate race Campaign Money Candidate District Announced campaign Ideological score Net Contributions Cash on hand Adam Schiff CA-30 Jan. 26 39 $15,963,098 $29,800,864 Katie Porter CA-47 Jan. 10 5 $7,573,551 $10,383,669 Barbara Lee CA-12 Feb. 21 99 $2,145,503 $1,400,817 Ideological score is the share of House Democrats that the representative is more liberal than, based on voting record. Fundraising data is based on FEC reports as of June 30, 2023. Sources: Federal Election Commission, VoteView.com Early primary polling suggests that Schiff and Porter may be the candidates to beat, too, although most surveys understandably have a substantial number of undecided voters at this point. An early October survey from [Data Viewpoint](20Viewpoint%20poll%20Oct%201%202023.pdf) found Schiff and Porter both at 19 percent, while Lee trailed with 6 percent. Similarly, August surveys from the [Public Policy Institute of California]( and the [Institute of Government Studies at the University of California-Berkeley]( found Schiff at 20 percent and Porter just behind in the teens, with Lee in the single digits. No notable Republicans have declared for the seat, and if that holds, a highly fragmented GOP vote across a series of minor contenders could make it easier for two Democrats to make it out of the primary. Butler’s biography could be compelling to the blue-leaning voters who’ll make up a large majority of the electorate. For one thing, her appointment is historic: She’s [only the third Black woman]( to serve in the Senate, and the first [to identify as Black and openly LGBTQ](. A native of Mississippi, Butler [grew up in a working-class family]( that faced challenges after her father died when she was 16 and went on to earn a degree from Jackson State University, a historically Black college or university. Butler’s career [has also deeply enmeshed her]( in Democratic politics in ways that could help her appeal to voters and raise money. Butler most recently served as president of Emily’s List, a prominent political action committee that champions female Democratic candidates who support abortion rights. Previously, she’d [worked as a national organizer]( for Service Employees International Union before moving to California in 2009 to head SEIU Local 2015 for about a decade, representing long-term care workers as part of [California’s largest labor union](. And before leading Emily’s List, Butler was also a partner at SCRB Strategies (now Bearstar Strategies), a California-based political strategy firm, and served as a senior adviser to now-Vice President Kamala Harris’s 2020 presidential campaign. But beyond the robust fundraising and already lengthy campaigns of her potential Democratic opponents, Butler’s hypothetical Senate bid would face many challenges. For one thing, it’s getting very late in the political calendar for her to enter the race. California’s [candidate filing deadline]( is Dec. 8 and the state’s primary is March 5, meaning she has roughly five months to play catch-up in this race. However, Butler would almost certainly have to declare well before December, not only to maximize her time to fundraise and appeal to voters, but also because she may want to try for the California Democratic Party’s formal endorsement at its [mid-November convention](. Endorsees [benefit from being listed]( in a special part of county voter guides, which can essentially serve as a free mailed advertisement to voters for the endorsed contender. To be eligible, [she’ll need to file with the party]( by Oct. 13. On top of those logistical issues, Butler’s résumé could also attract criticism from the left for having become too cozy with corporations that play big roles in the state’s political economy. During her work as a strategist, Butler [consulted for ride-share titan Uber]( as it and other companies began a [$200 million campaign]( for [Proposition 22]( a [successful 2020 ballot measure]( that allowed companies to classify ride-share and delivery drivers as independent contractors, exempting them from most employment benefits. Lee [opposed the measure]( as did [the state Democratic Party](. Butler [also consulted for Airbnb]( which [some have blamed as a contributor]( to the nation’s housing affordability crisis. Butler, with no prior elected experience, would also start without a clear constituency of support. By comparison, Democrats in Southern California are at least somewhat familiar with Schiff and Porter, while those in the Bay Area have knowledge of Lee. Schiff also has a major profile thanks to his [leading role in the first Trump impeachment trial]( and Porter has [gained notoriety]( for her aggressive questioning style in congressional hearings. Additionally, Butler might be vulnerable to questions about her residency: [She’d been living in Maryland]( during her time as Emily’s List president, although she maintained a home in California. Even if Butler doesn’t run, one other wrinkle makes Feinstein’s death and the ensuing vacancy important to the 2024 race: the special election that comes along with it. Under a state law [passed in 2021]( California will hold a special election for the remainder of the seat’s expiring term — now held by Butler — and that election’s primary and general election will occur at the same time as those of the regular election for the seat’s next six-year term. In theory, different candidates could win each race, which will sit right next to each other on [the primary]( and [general election]( ballots. In practice, the coinciding elections may not matter much because the same major candidates will probably file for both contests — though [we can’t rule out divergent outcomes]( in crowded and competitive races. California [saw how the double-election process worked in 2022]( after Harris’s departure precipitated a concurrent special election with the regular race for the next six-year term. Appointed Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla and Republican Mark Meuser finished first and second [in the primaries]( for [both contests](, and Padilla [handily won]( [both elections]( that November. Newsom has yet to formally call the special election, but once he does, it will have major consequences for fundraising. Because the special election will double the number of elections for the seat, it effectively doubles the amount of money candidates can raise from individual donors for the California contest. [Under federal campaign finance law]( candidates can receive a max of $6,600 from one contributor ($3,300 separately for both the primary and general), but now with an added special they could take in as much as $13,200. [Politico looked at donors]( to Schiff and Porter, the leading fundraisers, and found that while 495 donors had already maxed out donations to Schiff (as of June 30), just 47 had for Porter. If each of those contributors did the same for the special election, that would add up to $3.2 million more for Schiff versus $310,000 for Porter. Regardless of her electoral decision about 2024, Butler has now joined the list of senators hailing from the nation’s most populous state. At 44 years old, this appointment may just be her first chapter in high political office. Whether that’s in the Senate or elsewhere remains to be seen, and either way, the 2024 California election will undoubtedly be one of the most intensely watched elections this cycle — especially if two Democrats advance out of the primary. [Read more]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe](