Morning Distribution for Friday, September 22, 2023

[FiveThirtyEight]( Morning Distribution Friday, September, 22, 2023 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [Trump is weaker among independents than Republicans in primary polls]( [Trump is weaker among independents than Republicans in primary polls]( By [Geoffrey Skelley](/author/geoffrey_skelley) Former President Donald Trump holds a commanding lead in the Republican presidential primary, and is the clear favorite to win his party’s nomination. He’s polling in the mid-50s [in 538’s national polling average]( and holds substantial leads [in most polls of early voting states](. That doesn’t mean, however, that Trump doesn’t have potential vulnerabilities. Primary polling suggests that Trump is not performing as well among Republican-leaning independents and unaffiliated voters who plan to vote in the GOP nomination race as he is among self-identified Republicans. And past Republican presidential primaries have demonstrated that independent voters can make up a significant chunk of the electorate in early voting states and, if their preferences differ markedly from Republicans, can influence outcomes. To be clear, Trump usually leads among independent voters in primary polls — just by smaller margins than he does among self-identified Republicans. In what may be an obvious point, his large advantage among Republicans matters a great deal considering far more Republicans will vote in the GOP contest than independents (or Democrats, for that matter). During the competitive periods of the 2008, 2012 and 2016 Republican presidential primaries, around 70 to 75 percent of primary and caucus voters identified as Republican, according to ABC News’s aggregate exit poll data, while about 20 to 25 percent identified as independent or something else (5 percent or fewer identified as Democrats). But if the Republican race does tighten in the next few months, the preferences of independent voters could matter, particularly in New Hampshire, which has one of the largest blocs of unaffiliated voters of any state in the country. Throughout the campaign, we’ve seen Trump perform better among Republicans than among GOP-leaning independents in primary polls. For instance, a [May 2023 Quinnipiac University poll]( found Trump attracting 60 percent among Republicans, but just 46 percent among Republican-leaning independents. [Earlier this month]( Quinnipiac found Trump pulling in 67 percent of Republicans, compared with 47 percent of GOP leaners. And across national surveys conducted since Aug. 1 with available crosstab data, we usually saw a meaningful gap in support for Trump between Republicans and independents. Republicans back Trump more than GOP-leaning independents Support for Trump overall in national surveys of registered or likely voters, among Republicans and among independents/other respondents who leaned Republican and/or planned to vote in the GOP primary, since Aug. 1, 2023 Trump vote % Poll Date Pop. Overall Republicans Ind./Other Difference Emerson College 3 polls LV 55% 61% 43% 18 YouGov/Yahoo News Sept. 14-18 RV 59 62 50 12 Quinnipiac Univ. 2 polls RV 60 65 46 19 Echelon Insights Aug. 28-31 LV 52 53 44 9 SSRS/CNN Aug. 25-31 RV 52 56 37 19 HarrisX/Am. Free Enterprise Aug. 17-21 LV 52 55 43 12 YouGov/CBS News Aug. 16-18 LV 62 64 61 3 American Pulse Aug. 15-16 LV 58 59 47 13 Average 56 59 47 12 For party affiliation, some pollsters ask if a respondent identifies with a party, while others ask if a respondent is registered with a party (at least in states that have party enrollment). If a pollster conducted more than one poll in this period, we averaged the results. Source: polls Now, different pollsters used different approaches to measuring public opinion, and some asked their questions to Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters (e.g., Quinnipiac), while others asked likely primary voters (e.g., Echelon Insights). These sampling differences could affect the results because a likely voter is, well, more likely to actually vote than the average registered voter who is a GOP-leaning independent. And while there’s general overlap between the party a voter is registered with and the party that voter identifies with — at least in the states with party enrollment — [that’s not always the case]( and some pollsters based their party affiliation data on reported registration while others asked for party identification. Additionally, it’s important to note that the sample sizes for independents in primary polling tend to be much smaller than for partisans, so in some cases the differences in Republican and independent attitudes aren’t outside the margin of error, which is [always larger among subgroups within a poll](. Yet the preponderance of evidence suggests that Trump does indeed perform worse among those who don’t outright identify as Republican. We’re also seeing the split between Republicans and independents in state-level polling, too, which is important because parties don’t use a national primary to determine their nominees. Instead, [they employ a sequential](, state-by-state process in which the places that vote first influence — [sometimes more]( [sometimes less]( — the elections that follow. So if the race becomes more competitive than it is right now, independents who cast a ballot in the GOP primary could influence the outcome, especially in independent-rich New Hampshire. Critically, New Hampshire has both a large number of independents and allows them to participate in party primaries. As of Aug. 1, 38 percent of New Hampshire voters were registered as “undeclared” — that is, independent — while the other 62 percent were almost evenly split between the two major parties. This gives New Hampshire one of the largest blocs of registered independents [among the 31 states that have party enrollment](. New Hampshire also [permits independents to cast ballots]( in the party primary of their choosing, whereas [many states have closed primaries or caucuses]( that only permit party registrants to participate. As a result, exit polls have routinely found that self-identified independent voters make up a larger share of the Republican primary electorate in New Hampshire than in the other three early voting states of Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina. N.H. has more independent voters than other early states Party identification of voters in Republican primaries and caucuses in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, based on entrance/exit polls from 2008 to 2016 Year State Date Republican Ind./Other Democrat 2016 Iowa Feb. 1 79% 20% 2% 2016 New Hampshire Feb. 9 55 42 3 2016 South Carolina Feb. 20 76 22 2 2016 Nevada Feb. 23 82 18 1 2012 Iowa Jan. 3 75 23 2 2012 New Hampshire Jan. 10 49 47 4 2012 South Carolina Jan. 21 71 25 4 2012 Nevada Feb. 4 81 18 1 2008 Iowa Jan. 3 86 13 1 2008 New Hampshire Jan. 8 61 37 2 2008 South Carolina Jan. 19 80 18 2 2008 Nevada Jan. 19 86 12 2 Source: ABC News New Hampshire’s 2024 GOP primary could have an especially high rate of participation among independents, too, because it will be the only seriously contested primary on the state’s ballot. President Biden [faces no serious opposition]( so more independents — even some who lean Democratic — might see the Republican primary as the only race worth voting in. We’ve seen this happen before: In 2012, when Democratic President Barack Obama was seeking reelection, the New Hampshire GOP primary electorate split almost 50-50 between Republicans and independents, [according to the exit polls](. By contrast, when Democrats also had competitive contests in 2008 and 2016, clear majorities of Republican primary voters in New Hampshire identified as Republicans. In line with this, the exit polls also found the share of voters who were registered as independents before voting in the Republican primary was higher in 2012 (45 percent) than in 2008 or 2016 (34 percent and 36 percent, respectively). Now, Trump holds a sizable edge in New Hampshire, but surveys [have also found]( Trump [performing much better]( among [Republican voters than among independents](. And if Trump’s advantage in the race were to narrow, history suggests his relative softness among independents could conceivably boost his opposition. For instance, John McCain and Mitt Romney [ran about even among self-identified Republicans]( in the 2008 New Hampshire primary, but McCain edged Romney among independents and [won the state]( (and, eventually, [the GOP nomination](. While independents are less likely to play a major role in other early states, surveys [from Iowa]( and [South Carolina]( (we have [no recent Nevada polls]( suggest Trump also has less support among them. However, Iowa and Nevada Republicans both utilize closed caucus systems where participants must be registered as Republicans to participate, which will likely benefit Trump. South Carolina, on the other hand, [uses an open primary system]( because the state has no party registration, so that makes it easier for independents to participate. Still, past exit polls suggest we shouldn’t expect much more than 30 percent of GOP primary voters there to identify as independent. Trump has mostly polled in the mid-to-high 40s in South Carolina, but independent voters could matter in a close race: Similar to New Hampshire, McCain [won South Carolina]( in 2008 partly thanks to [outsized support from independents]( while he and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee ran about even among Republicans. If Trump’s relative weakness among independents holds up once voting begins next year, it will represent a notable shift in his base of support compared to his first run in 2016. Back then, Trump performed similarly well among Republicans and independents, attracting 42 percent support among Republicans and 38 percent among independents during the competitive part of the primary (until early May 2016). Yet this time around, he may have more overwhelming backing from Republicans than independents, in part because, [in a reversal from 2016]( he’s getting somewhat more support from very conservative voters, [who are more likely to identify as Republican]( than from somewhat conservative or moderate voters. When it comes to winning the GOP nomination, though, that would almost certainly be a good trade-off for Trump. [Read more]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe](