Morning Distribution for Friday, September 1, 2023

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Morning Distribution]( Friday, September 1, 2023 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [2024 Presidential Candidates Participate In Republican Primary Debate]( [Vivek Ramaswamy Is Climbing. Where Can He Go?]( By [Geoffrey Skelley]( At last week’s Republican debate, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy arguably [made the biggest splash]( of any candidate. Sharing center stage with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the entrepreneur [spoke more than any contender]( other than former Vice President Mike Pence and even [briefly surpassed]( the absent front-runner, former President Donald Trump, in Google search traffic. [Built partly on his personal wealth and media savvy]( Ramaswamy’s [longshot candidacy]( has crystallized into something that is, if not quite at the level of constituting a serious challenge, at least competitive enough to draw more attention. On debate day, he stood at about 10 percent in [FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average]( up from 4 percent in early July. Similar to [less heralded candidates who came before him]( Ramaswamy is now facing more scrutiny from fellow Republicans and the media. His primary opponents [criticized his positions and inexperience]( during the debate, while his comments about some issues — such as the [possible involvement of the federal government]( in the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks — have prompted journalists [to more closely examine Ramaswamy](. So as Ramaswamy stands on the precipice of becoming a big-time candidate, we took a look at who is backing him, what his potential ceiling might be and which other GOP candidate(s) he could take support from in the coming weeks and months. Who supports Ramaswamy? Republican primary polls conducted in August didn’t consistently find that Ramaswamy’s support came disproportionately from certain groups. And even in polls that did find divides, the differences weren’t usually statistically significant, as margins of error for subgroups — like voters with a four-year college degree — [will be larger than the margin of error for the entire sample](. Because of sampling error and differences in how pollsters conduct their surveys, such inconsistencies aren’t unusual, but they do complicate any takeaways about the nature of his support. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Good Or Bad Use Of Polling … Extended Cut]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.