Morning Distribution for Tuesday, August 15, 2023

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Morning Distribution]( Tuesday, August 15, 2023 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [GettyImages-1590575964_4x3]( [Trump’s Indictments Might Be Hurting Him — Just Not In The Primary Polls]( By [G. Elliott Morris]( During the 2016 election, Donald Trump earned the nickname “[Teflon Don]( for his uncanny ability to avoid any consequences for the various scandals he faced. This year, after prosecutors have filed four separate indictments against him for alleged state and federal crimes (the most recent one, from prosecutors in the state of Georgia, [coming just last night]( it is still [conventional]( [wisdom]( among political analysts that such scandals don’t hurt him — and are even actively [helping him](. But two weeks after Trump was [indicted]( by a federal grand jury for his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, polling data suggests he has been unable to convince voters that his [latest boogeyman]( — the United States Department of Justice — is really out to get him. Instead, polls show that while it may not be putting a serious dent in his lead in the Republican primary, voters overall view his latest indictment as serious and believe that Trump’s actions related to the events of Jan. 6, 2021, merit criminal charges. And among both adults and Republicans, Trump’s favorability rating fell after he was [indicted in June]( for illegally retaining classified documents and refusing to return them to the U.S. officials when asked. Trump has a record-high lead in GOP primary polls Let’s start with the positive case for “Teflon Don.” His rosiest news comes in the form of polls of the 2024 Republican presidential primary. According to FiveThirtyEight’s [national polling average]( of the primary, Trump has a near record-high advantage of 38.7 percentage points over his nearest competitor, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. That’s up from a lead of 15 to 20 points in late March, prior to his [indictment]( in New York state for allegedly falsifying business records in order to pay hush money to an adult film actress in the lead-up to the 2016 election. Though DeSantis had begun a gentle slide in the polls from January to early March, the trend shifted markedly after the indictment. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: How Much Is Abortion Motivating Voters?]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.