FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, August 6, 2023 [1. If RFK Jr. Wants To Be President, He’s Running In The Wrong Primary]( [Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is running for president as a Democrat, but his favorability ratings are much higher among Republicans.]( A certain presidential candidate has been very popular lately. He appeared on Joe Rogan’s podcast. House Republicans invited him to testify before Congress on censorship. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, also a Republican, has suggested that if he becomes president, he might nominate him to lead the Food and Drug Administration or Centers for Disease Control. GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy said he’d consider him to be his running mate. [Read more]( [2. Will Three Indictments Prove Too Much For Trump’s Campaign?]( [SlackChat_Amelia_08.03.23_v01_ag]( Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [3. All Of Trump’s Indictments Could Seriously Bog Down His Campaign]( [Former President Donald Trump’s growing list of indictments may throw a wrench into his campaign schedule next year.]( Former President Donald Trump’s year just got even busier. [Read more]( [4. Is This The Indictment That Really Hurts Trump?]( [Polls suggest that voters might take charges related to the attempted reversal of the 2020 election more seriously than past indictments.]( Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: On Tuesday, former President Donald Trump was indicted for the third time. Federal prosecutors have charged him with four counts of conspiracy and obstruction in relation to his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. [Read more]( [5. Trump’s Rivals Can’t Compete With His Version Of Masculinity]( [TOPSHOT-US-POLITICS-ELECTION-TRUMP]( The contest to prove which Republican is the manliest is in full swing. Over the past few months, the GOP candidates have been falling over each other to prove their athletic worth. (Did you know Miami Mayor Francis Suarez is a distance runner? Or that South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott can throw a football? Or that Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin — who’s not even running — plays basketball?) And earlier in the summer, there were reports that some aides in former President Donald Trump’s campaign were urging him to engage in some decidedly juvenile comparisons with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis about penis size. [Read more]( [6. What 2020 Did — And Didn’t — Change About How Americans Vote]( [538_4x3_VotingMethods_v01_ks]( In the ongoing experiment that is democracy, every election creates ripple effects for the ones to follow. But occasionally there is an election cycle so disruptive, it changes practically everything. We saw it in 2000, when the contested presidential results in Florida led to a complete overhaul of America’s election infrastructure. The 2020 election was the latest watershed moment. The COVID-19 pandemic and former President Donald Trump’s false claims of a stolen election led to an avalanche of changes in how Americans vote. [Read more]( [7. What’s Going On With House Retirements This Cycle?]( [House Judiciary Committee Hears Testimony From Special Counsel John Durham]( With a presidential election on the docket in 2024, much of the political spotlight right now is shining on the race for the White House. But all over the country, there will also be a bevy of critical down-ballot contests, including all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Republicans took control of the chamber in the 2022 midterms, but hold only a 222-to-213 edge over the Democrats, meaning that Democrats would only need to flip five Republican-held seats to recapture the House. [Read more]( [8. Which Republican Will Drop Out Of The 2024 Primary First?]( [SlackChat_7_25_23_v01_DG]( Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [9. A Growing Share Of Americans Think States Shouldn’t Be Able To Put Any Limits On Abortion]( [abortion-thumb-4×3]( The Supreme Court’s 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization transformed the politics of abortion, turning an issue that once mattered mostly to conservative Christians into a powerful voting issue on the left. But new polling suggests that the decision could also be reshaping the way abortion-rights supporters think about the issue — specifically, whether abortion is something that should be regulated by the government at all. [Read more]( [10. Six Republican Candidates Appear To Have Qualified For The August Debate]( [University Of Colorado Prepares To Host Third GOP Presidental Primary Debate]( And they’re off! Six Republican presidential candidates appear to have qualified for their party’s first primary debate on Aug. 23, thanks to a pair of polls from Beacon Research/Shaw & Company/Fox Business released on Sunday that measured the preferences of likely GOP voters in Iowa and South Carolina. Based on FiveThirtyEight’s analysis, the two surveys increased the number of total polls that can, according to the Republican National Committee’s guidelines, qualify a candidate for the stage to five. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Emergency Podcast: Trump Charged In Jan. 6 Investigation]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.