FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular In Politics] Thursday, July 27, 2023 [1. Which 2024 Candidates Are In Trouble, According To The Latest Fundraising Numbers?]( [SlackChat_7_18_v01_DG]( Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [2. Alabama’s Proposed Congressional Map Is Still Biased Against Black Voters]( [538_AL_Congressional_Map_4x3_v01_dnl]( UPDATE (July 18, 2023, 3:50 p.m.): On Tuesday, a Senate committee in Alabama passed a different congressional map from the one discussed below, but it has the same flaws: Namely, it does not create a second district where Black voters can reliably elect their preferred candidate. The proposed 2nd District in the second map has an even smaller Black population than the proposed 2nd District in the first map. Both maps are likely to run into legal trouble. [Read more]( [3. Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley Are Leading In Early State Visits So Far]( [Senator Joni Ernst’s Annual Roast And Ride Event]( All of the Republican presidential candidates who aren’t former President Donald Trump are looking for some version of their Jimmy Carter moment. Way back in 1976, Carter — then a little-known governor — invested heavily in his Iowa ground game, won the caucuses, and went on to clinch the Democratic nomination. [Read more]( [4. The Creative Fundraising Tactics Some Republicans Are Using To Make The Debate Stage]( [GOP Presidential Candidates Attend Merrimack Fourth of July Parade]( When the Republican National Committee released its qualification rules for the GOP’s first primary debate in August, a few Republican presidential contenders winced at the prospect of needing 40,000 unique donors to make the stage. Just six candidates have reached or eclipsed that mark so far, and it remains to be seen if some lesser-known candidates can do the same. [Read more]( [5. Why A Third-Party Candidate Might Help Trump — And Spoil The Election For Biden]( [Final U.S. Presidential Debate Between President Trump And Democratic Candidate Joe Biden]( We don’t need to have major-party presidential nominees to have a conversation about a third-party spoiler candidate affecting the 2024 presidential election. Faced with the prospect of a rematch between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, at least two alternatives have already emerged: The bipartisan No Labels organization is working toward fielding a centrist presidential ticket, while Cornel West, a well-known public intellectual and political progressive, has launched a bid for the Green Party’s nomination. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Who’d Win A Trump-less GOP Primary?]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.