Morning Distribution for Thursday, July 13, 2023

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Morning Distribution]( Thursday, July 13, 2023 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [Final U.S. Presidential Debate Between President Trump And Democratic Candidate Joe Biden]( [Why A Third-Party Candidate Might Help Trump — And Spoil The Election For Biden]( By [Geoffrey Skelley]( We don’t need to have major-party presidential nominees to have a conversation about a [third-party spoiler candidate]( affecting the 2024 presidential election. Faced with the prospect of a rematch between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, at least two alternatives have already emerged: The bipartisan No Labels organization [is working toward fielding a centrist presidential ticket]( while Cornel West, a well-known public intellectual and political progressive, [has launched a bid]( for the Green Party’s nomination. These efforts have [Democrats fretting]( that [both bids could]( garner support from voters who might otherwise back Biden against Trump, thereby boosting Trump’s chances of winning. So what do we know about the situations in which third-party bids become spoiler campaigns? Initial evidence suggests that, in a rematch between Biden and Trump, a No Labels and/or West campaign could pull marginal support from Biden and subtly shift the election toward Trump. Whether this would actually make for a potential spoiler, though, is a different question: History — and common sense — suggest that these possible third-party candidates would be most likely to affect the outcome if the overall race were close. But in our deeply divided political era, [close elections have been the norm]( which makes a spoiler candidacy a live possibility. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: What’s So Special About ‘Bidenomics’?]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.