FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, July 2, 2023 [1. The Supreme Court Killed Biden’s Student Loan Forgiveness Plan. What Does That Mean For 2024?]( [Biggest Cases Loom As Supreme Court Hits Homestretch]( On Friday, the last day of this year’s term, the Supreme Court struck down President Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan. The court concluded in a 6-to-3 ruling that the president overstepped his executive authority by making such a large-scale change to the program via a waiver, as laid out in a 2003 law. Chief Justice John Roberts was joined by the five other Republican appointees to the court. “The [2003 law] provides no authorization for the Secretary’s plan even when examined using the ordinary tools of statutory interpretation — let alone ‘clear congressional authorization’ for such a program,” Roberts wrote. [Read more]( [2. No Labels Is Chasing A Fantasy]( [NoLabelsBidMainImage_4x3_v01_DG]( There’s not a lot of love for the two-party system. Over the past decade, a majority of Americans have repeatedly told Gallup that the Republican and Democratic parties do such a poor job representing the American people that the country needs a third party. [Read more]( [3. Most Americans Wanted The Supreme Court To End Affirmative Action — Kind Of]( [The US Supreme Court building]( In a ruling on two related cases on Thursday written by Chief Justice John Roberts, the Supreme Court just ended affirmative action in higher education as we know it. [Read more]( [4. Nonreligious Americans Are The New Abortion Voters]( [US-politics-abortion-RALLY]( When Roe v. Wade was overturned last year, many white evangelical Protestants didn’t just see the Supreme Court’s ruling as a political win — it was a spiritual victory. For decades, religious conservatives have been singularly focused on ending the constitutional right to abortion, a priority that few other demographic groups shared. White evangelical Protestants — a group that has, since the 1980s, voted overwhelmingly for Republicans — were much more likely than other religious groups to say that abortion was a high priority. [Read more]( [5. Introducing Our Brand-New Polling Averages]( [538_Main_PollAverage_v02_agArtboard-USE]( As you may have heard, there have been some changes at FiveThirtyEight recently. While it will be strange around here without our founder Nate Silver, his models and his oddly strong opinions about states, there are also some things that aren’t going away: namely, our commitment to rigorous data journalism and our mountains of polling data and trackers. [Read more]( [6. What The Supreme Court’s New Ruling Does — And Doesn’t — Mean For 2024]( [The Supreme Court has ruled that state legislatures do not have unilateral authority over election law, but left the door open for future challenges against state court overreach.]( For the second time this month, the Supreme Court has preserved the legal status quo on election law — causing liberals to breathe a huge sigh of relief. [Read more]( [7. Who’s A Serious Candidate For The Republican Nomination, And Who’s Just Dreaming?]( [MajorRepublicanCandidates_4x3_v01_ag]( Pop quiz: How many Republicans are running for president? According to NPR, it’s 11. According to The New York Times, it’s 12. According to Politico, it’s 14. [Read more]( [8. Vulnerable Senate Democrats Are Breaking With Biden More Often]( [538_4x3_ManchinBiden_v01_ks]( Despite some headlines to the contrary, congressional Democrats were historically united last Congress. Though they had razor-thin majorities in the Senate and House, they managed to pass major legislation with virtually unanimous support in their caucus. But that unity seems to be eroding — at least in the Senate. [Read more]( [9. Will Hurd Is Running To Win A Tiny Slice Of The Small Pie Of Anti-Trump Voters]( [2024-TOC-REP-WillHurd-v01-ks-4×3]( Have you ever tried to push your way into an already crowded, narrow elevator in an old apartment building? In announcing his candidacy for the presidency on Thursday, former Rep. Will Hurd of Texas sought to do just that. [Read more]( [10. Dobbs Turned Abortion Into A Huge Liability For Republicans]( [A demonstrator holds a sign that reads "Goodbye Roe" outside the US Supreme Court]( When Theresa M. started attending a support group for breast cancer survivors, she didn’t expect political issues like abortion to be a part of the conversation. But since last summer, when her home state of Florida — freed from the requirements of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court — began imposing new abortion restrictions, younger women who were newly diagnosed with breast cancer started to voice concerns. “They worry if you find out you’re pregnant, you might have to stop your cancer treatment,” said Theresa, who is 58 and asked that her full name be withheld for personal reasons. “For some kinds of cancer, that’s a death sentence. But not an immediate death sentence, so you don’t get an abortion.” [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Wait, So Do Americans Support Affirmative Action Or Not?]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.