FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, June 4, 2023 [1. Who Gave Up More In The Debt Ceiling Negotiations: Biden Or Republicans?]( [SlackChat_060123_v01_DG]( Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [2. Why Trump Is Polling Much Better Among Very Conservative Primary Voters Than In 2016]( [TrumpPollingNumbers4x3_v01_DG]( Shortly before the 2016 presidential primaries began, the influential conservative outlet the National Review devoted an entire edition of its biweekly magazine to making the ideological case “against Trump.” [Read more]( [3. Are Black And Hispanic Americans Abandoning Biden?]( [Union Workers Hold Caravan Rally To Support Joe Biden]( President Biden has an enthusiasm problem — again. Since he kicked off his reelection bid in late April, asking Americans for another four years to “finish this job,” there’s been plenty of attention to his potential weaknesses among key voting blocs, particularly Black voters. New data from the 2022 midterm elections also reinforces earlier election analysis suggesting that turnout was down among Black and Hispanic Americans compared to the 2018 midterms, underscoring concerns that support for Biden could be slipping among voters of color. [Read more]( [4. Why Debt Ceiling Polls Keep Giving Us Conflicting Results]( [Pola_DebtCeiling_4x3_v04_ag]( Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly-ish polling roundup. [Read more]( [5. How Bad Could A Government Default Get?]( [DebtCeiling_4x3_Horiz_v08_ag]( With less than a week until the U.S. runs out of cash, economists and policymakers are using words like “cataclysmic event” and “calamity” to describe what will happen if Congress doesn’t raise the debt limit. [Read more]( [6. Over 100 Anti-LGBTQ+ Laws Passed In The Last Five Years — Half Of Them This Year]( [538_Main_AntiTransLaws_4x3_v01_ag]( By the time students go back to school this fall in North Dakota, two new bills will be in effect restricting some transgender athletes from playing on school sports teams. Gov. Doug Burgum signed these bills into law last month — yet just two years ago, when a similar ban passed the North Dakota Legislative Assembly, Burgum vetoed the bill. He noted at the time that the state had no record of any trans girls competing in girls’ sports and that the state had “a level playing field and fairness in girls’ sports.” [Read more]( [7. The Rise, Fall And Potential Resurrection Of Ron DeSantis]( [2024-TOC-DESANTIS-4×3]( After signaling a campaign for months — even years — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis formally announced on Wednesday that he’s running for president. As a result, the two leading Republican candidates in the primary polls, former President Donald Trump and DeSantis, are now both officially in the race. [Read more]( [8. The 2024 Republican Primary Is Heating Up. Time For Another FiveThirtyEight Primary Draft!]( [SlackChat_Geoffy_5.23.23_v01_ag]( Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [9. Tim Scott’s Uphill Battle To Win The Republican Nomination]( [A photo of Tim Scott holding a microphone.]( A decisive Election Day win last year. A prime speaking slot at a national Republican convention. That elusive “fresh face” that a plurality of GOP voters have told pollsters they want going into next year’s election. [Read more]( [10. Florida Started A Race To Reshape Conservatism. Now It Has Some Catching Up To Do.]( [FloridaLegislation_v03_DG]( The vanguard of American conservatism is Florida — at least, according to its governor. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: There’s A Debt Ceiling Agreement … For Now]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.