FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, May 28, 2023 [1. How Bad Could A Government Default Get?]( [DebtCeiling_4x3_Horiz_v08_ag]( With less than a week until the U.S. runs out of cash, economists and policymakers are using words like “cataclysmic event” and “calamity” to describe what will happen if Congress doesn’t raise the debt limit. [Read more]( [2. Over 100 Anti-LGBTQ+ Laws Passed In The Last Five Years — Half Of Them This Year]( [538_Main_AntiTransLaws_4x3_v01_ag]( By the time students go back to school this fall in North Dakota, two new bills will be in effect restricting some transgender athletes from playing on school sports teams. Gov. Doug Burgum signed these bills into law last month — yet just two years ago, when a similar ban passed the North Dakota Legislative Assembly, Burgum vetoed the bill. He noted at the time that the state had no record of any trans girls competing in girls’ sports and that the state had “a level playing field and fairness in girls’ sports.” [Read more]( [3. The Rise, Fall And Potential Resurrection Of Ron DeSantis]( [2024-TOC-DESANTIS-4×3]( After signaling a campaign for months — even years — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis formally announced on Wednesday that he’s running for president. As a result, the two leading Republican candidates in the primary polls, former President Donald Trump and DeSantis, are now both officially in the race. [Read more]( [4. The 2024 Republican Primary Is Heating Up. Time For Another FiveThirtyEight Primary Draft!]( [SlackChat_Geoffy_5.23.23_v01_ag]( Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [5. Tim Scott’s Uphill Battle To Win The Republican Nomination]( [A photo of Tim Scott holding a microphone.]( A decisive Election Day win last year. A prime speaking slot at a national Republican convention. That elusive “fresh face” that a plurality of GOP voters have told pollsters they want going into next year’s election. [Read more]( [6. Florida Started A Race To Reshape Conservatism. Now It Has Some Catching Up To Do.]( [FloridaLegislation_v03_DG]( The vanguard of American conservatism is Florida — at least, according to its governor. [Read more]( [7. Some Evangelical Voters Aren’t Sold On Trump. Will That Help DeSantis?]( [trump-iowa_4x3_use]( The issue of abortion could be one of former President Donald Trump’s biggest weaknesses in the Republican primary — and Ron DeSantis is trying to take advantage of it. “He won’t answer whether he would sign it or not,” the governor of Florida said on Tuesday, referring to a ban on abortion after six weeks of pregnancy. As recently as last week, Trump was noncommittal about what kind of abortion restrictions he would support, and claimed in an interview on Monday that “many people in the pro-life movement” think a six-week ban — which DeSantis himself signed in April — is “too harsh.” [Read more]( [8. In Red States, ‘Gun Reform’ Means Making It Easier To Buy And Carry Guns]( [GunLegislation_v02_DG]( So far this year, mass shootings are on the rise. So are laws expanding gun rights. [Read more]( [9. What To Watch In Tuesday’s Elections (Yes, There Are Elections)]( [Cameron_4x3]( You wouldn’t think that a random Tuesday in an odd year would be full of interesting elections. But that’s exactly what we’re getting on May 16: The field will be set for arguably this fall’s most competitive election; Republicans will try to retain their grip on the mayoralty of one of the only major cities they still govern; and moderate and progressive Democrats will face off in the latest skirmish of their nationwide war for big-city city halls. Here’s everything you need to know about who’s on the ballot in — and who might emerge victorious from — Tuesday’s elections. [Read more]( [10. The End Of Title 42 Could Be A Big Problem For Biden]( [PollaPalooza_5_10_23_4x3_v01_DG]( Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: The Case For And Against Ron DeSantis]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.