Morning Distribution for Wednesday, April 19, 2023

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Morning Distribution]( Wednesday, April 19, 2023 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [ENDORSEMENTS-WELCOME-2023-4×3]( [Why It Matters That Trump Is Leading The 2024 Primary Field In Endorsements]( By [Nathaniel Rakich]( Today, FiveThirtyEight is launching [our endorsement tracker for the 2024 Republican presidential primary](. And while it’s early in the primary season, former President Donald Trump currently has a commanding lead. As we did for [Democrats and Republicans in 2016]( and [Democrats in 2020]( we’re tracking whom Republican politicians are supporting in the presidential race, giving more weight, or “points,” to endorsements from more prominent politicians. We encourage you to read [our full methodology](. As of Tuesday at 5 p.m. Eastern, Trump has 218 points, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has 11. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence have three points each. Why track endorsements? After all, the last time Republicans had a presidential primary without an incumbent, the candidates who led the endorsement race were [no match for the one preferred by voters](. Trump’s victory in 2016 seemed like a clear repudiation of the [“party decides” hypothesis]( of presidential primaries: that the candidate with the most support from party elites tends to win the nomination. But 2016 was just one data point. Historically, endorsements have proven [pretty predictive of who wins presidential nominating contests](. Since the modern primary era began in 1972, there have been 17 Democratic or Republican primary fights that did not feature an incumbent president. The candidate with the most endorsement points on the day before the Iowa caucuses won 11. That’s a better track record than polls have at the same point in the election: Since 1972, the leader in national polls on the day before Iowa has won the nomination just 10 out of 17 times. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: The Next Supreme Court Clash Over Abortion]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.