FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, April 16, 2023 [1. Who Won The 2023 WNBA Draft?]( [WNBA Commissioner Cathy Engelbert and Aliyah Boston pose for photos after Boston was drafted 1st overall by the Indiana Fever]( Every WNBA draft has the potential to reshape the league. But Monday’s picks might carry more of that capability than most. [Read more]( [2. Ceci N’Est Pas Une Pollapalooza]( [0414_POLLA–4×3]( Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. [Read more]( [3. Why An Aging Population Might Not Doom The American Economy]( [Seniors shop for groceries during special hours amid the COVID-19 pandemic]( The American economy is booming and robust. Just look at the chart below, which shows that the overall unemployment rate — the share of people within the labor force who are without work but are looking for it — is lower than it’s been in more than 50 years: [Read more]( [4. Can Anyone Stop The Big, Bad Bruins?]( [NHL-PLAYOFFS-2023-4×3]( The puck drops on the 2023 NHL playoffs on Monday, which means the most grueling postseason in all of professional sports will soon commence. In anticipation, let’s run down the list of top Stanley Cup contenders (every team with at least a 5 percent chance, according to our NHL predictions model) and detail why they will — or won’t — hoist Lord Stanley’s mug in June. [Read more]( [5. The Mets Assembled The Most Expensive Baseball Team Ever. Is That Enough To Make Them MLB’s Best Team?]( [Miami Marlins v New York Mets]( As the 2022 season ended, the New York Mets and owner Steve Cohen were wrapping up a major-league payroll record by shelling out about $430 million in salaries plus luxury tax penalties. Then Cohen doubled down, going on a further spending spree in the run-up to 2023. In free agency, the Mets added future Hall of Fame pitcher Justin Verlander (two years, $86.7 million), Japanese pitching star Kodai Senga (five years, $75 million) and veteran starter ​​José Quintana (two years, $26 million). Those weren’t even the team’s biggest outlays of the winter: Center fielder Brandon Nimmo re-signed for $162 million over eight years, and closer Edwin Díaz did the same for $102 million over five. [Read more]( [6. Trump Leads DeSantis In Our New 2024 Republican Primary Polling Average]( [GOP-HORSERACE-4×3]( Today, FiveThirtyEight is launching our national polling average for the 2024 Republican presidential primary. It shows former President Donald Trump receiving 49.3 percent of the national vote and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (who has not officially entered the race) receiving 26.2 percent. Former Vice President Mike Pence, another potential candidate, is at 5.8 percent, while declared candidate and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is at 4.3 percent. [Read more]( [7. Virtual Abortions Surged After Roe Was Overturned — But The Texas Ruling Could Change That]( [Mifepristone and misoprostol pills are provided at a Carafem clinic for medication abortions]( UPDATE (April 14, 4:40 p.m.): As of April 14, the Supreme Court has issued a temporary stay on restrictions of mifepristone while the justices evaluate whether they will issue a formal stay. Two days prior, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals issued a partial stay of Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk’s ruling, affecting only his decision to invalidate the original 2000 approval of mifepristone — not subsequent updates to the FDA’s regulations surrounding the drug’s use. Under the Fifth Circuit’s ruling, mifepristone can still be sold and used, but cannot be distributed through the mail and must be dispensed in-person at a clinic, hospital or by a certified medical provider, a process that involves multiple visits. It is unclear how this pause interacts with a ruling from a federal court in Washington state that orders the FDA to continue dispensing mifepristone under the newer, telehealth-friendly regulations. [Read more]( [8. Over 66,000 People Couldn’t Get An Abortion In Their Home State After Dobbs]( [A clinic escort assists a patient at a Planned Parenthood Health Center in Philadelphia]( A few weeks ago, Jessica Marchbank got a call from a woman whose abortion had just been canceled. The woman had driven more than two hours from Louisville, Kentucky, to Indianapolis, leaving three children at home. “She’s crying, saying, ‘How am I going to make this work?’” said Marchbank, who is the state programs officer at All-Options Pregnancy Resource Center in Bloomington, Indiana. “She barely had the gas to get home that day.” [Read more]( [9. No Play-In Team Has Won An NBA Playoff Series. Will That Change This Season?]( [LeBron James of the Los Angeles Lakers dribbles the ball while Jaden McDaniels of the Minnesota Timberwolves defends]( As the NBA’s annual play-in tournament plays out over the next few days, we’re sure to hear a lot of talk about which of the teams involved is the greatest threat to “make some noise” in the playoffs. The fact that three of those teams have made the NBA Finals in recent years (and one of them is LeBron James’s team) surely has a lot to do with that, but so does the perception that this year’s title race is more wide-open than in years past — a perception that has been present since before the season even began. Throw in the fact that the play-in teams are the only ones playing actual games until the weekend, and you’ve got the perfect environment for the pundits to fire off some hot takes about which of them poses the greatest danger to the top seeds. [Read more]( [10. Our New Live In-Game Win Probabilities Are Here For The NBA Playoffs]( [NBA-winprob-2023_4x3]( The NBA playoffs are almost here, with the play-in tournament tipping off later tonight. But while the regular season was careening toward a dramatic finish, we were hard at work creating a live in-game win probability model — and we’re pretty damn excited to share it. We officially added this model to our forecast page this morning, and you can read more about the ins and outs of how it works here. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Americans Are Feeling Better These Days]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.