Morning Distribution for Wednesday, April 12, 2023

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Morning Distribution]( Wednesday, April 12, 2023 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [Miami Marlins v New York Mets]( [The Mets Assembled The Most Expensive Baseball Team Ever. Is That Enough To Make Them MLB’s Best Team?]( By [Alex Kirshner]( As the 2022 season ended, the New York Mets and owner Steve Cohen were wrapping up [a major-league payroll record]( by shelling out about $430 million in salaries plus luxury tax penalties. Then Cohen doubled down, going on a further spending spree in the run-up to 2023. In free agency, the Mets added future Hall of Fame pitcher Justin Verlander (two years, $86.7 million), Japanese pitching star Kodai Senga (five years, $75 million) and veteran starter ​​José Quintana (two years, $26 million). Those weren’t even the team’s biggest outlays of the winter: Center fielder Brandon Nimmo re-signed for $162 million over eight years, and closer Edwin Díaz did the same for $102 million over five. All of this added up to $501.3 million doled out by Cohen in hot-stove contracts — a number that could, in theory, have been as much as $816 million if shortstop Carlos Correa [had finalized a 12-year, $315 million deal that fell apart](. As it is, the Mets are poised to shell out something on the order of $380 million in salary and tax commitments this season, the highest figure in MLB [by more than $80 million](. Having already won 101 games just last year, the Mets have turned into baseball’s impossible-to-ignore elephant in the room. Mets fans are captivated as their owner tries to win. Opposing fans aren’t jazzed about a financial behemoth trying to outspend the entire league, or they wish their team would be the one doing it. And Cohen’s fellow owners [are even less jazzed]( about expanding player salaries, creating an “economic reform committee” that [might as well be called the “stop Steve Cohen committee.”]( Against that backdrop, the Most Expensive Team That Money Can Buy has to actually get down to the business of playing ball games. And after an offseason that was built to generate excitement, the first few weeks of New York’s regular season have been boring at best and frustrating at worst. Through 11 games, the Mets are 6-5, enough to nudge their [FiveThirtyEight season forecast]( down from a 92-70 record projection and 75 percent chance to make the playoffs in preseason to 91-71 and 74 percent, respectively. The Mets’ computer outlook is dimmer in part because FiveThirtyEight’s model [bakes in injuries to starting pitchers]( (though not to relievers or position players), and the Mets are heavy on injured starters. Verlander [went on the 15-day injured list]( on March 30 and has yet to make his Mets debut as he rehabilitates a strained shoulder. He expects to be back [before April is over]( but Quintana, who had bone graft surgery on his rib, [will not pitch for the Mets until at least July](. The Mets’ planned starting rotation has five pitchers aged 30 or older, and so far, 40 percent of the staff hasn’t stayed healthy. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: The Politics Of AI]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.