FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, March 12, 2023 [1. Americans Want Tighter Railroad Regulations After The Ohio Train Derailment]( [0308_POLLA-4×3]( Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. [Read more]( [2. The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022]( [POLLSTER-RATINGS-2023-FEATURE-4×3]( Let’s give a big round of applause to the pollsters. Measuring public opinion is, in many ways, harder than ever — and yet, the polling industry just had one of its most successful election cycles in U.S. history. Despite a loud chorus of naysayers claiming that the polls were either underestimating Democratic support or biased yet again against Republicans, the polls were more accurate in 2022 than in any cycle since at least 1998, with almost no bias toward either party. [Read more]( [3. Some GOP Legislators Are Trying To Show They’re Pro-Life, Not Just Anti-Abortion]( [Pro-life supporters march in Washington D.C.]( In their first full legislative sessions after the Supreme Court overruled Roe v. Wade, Republican state legislators are being pressed on what “pro-life” really means. There are plenty of bills focusing on abortion restrictions — particularly in the Republican-controlled states where abortion is still largely legal — but GOP lawmakers are also being pushed to consider new protections for pregnant women and new mothers. [Read more]( [4. The Fed’s Inflation Goal Is Completely Arbitrary]( [2-PERCENT-INFLATION-4×3]( Over the past 18 months, inflation has dominated our understanding of the pandemic economy. Americans have endured the highest yearly price increases in four decades, from soup to nuts — literally. Even now, as experts and forecasters worry that the economy might dip into recession, observers also remain dismayed about the relative stickiness of inflation. Through it all, we’ve heard an almost mantra-like refrain from the Federal Reserve: We’re still not close to 2 percent inflation. [Read more]( [5. The College Basketball Storylines You Should Know Before March Madness]( [MM-2023_CATCHUP-4×3]( March Madness is nearly upon us, and soon there will be brackets to overanalyze. But if you’re like most Americans, you probably haven’t been paying full attention just yet to the regular seasons of men’s and women’s college basketball. So as the sports head into the national spotlight, there’s plenty to get caught up on before the tourney fields are set. Let’s dive into three storylines on each side of the sport to set the table. [Read more]( [6. The Knicks’ Winning Streak Is Over. The Reasons It Happened Are Here To Stay.]( [Julius Randle #30 of the New York Knicks celebrates]( Before losing to the Charlotte Hornets in somewhat embarrassing fashion on Tuesday night, the New York Knicks had been the hottest team in professional basketball. If you’ve paid any attention to the NBA over the past two decades or so, you know that this is not the kind of thing that happens very often. With that in mind, even though the run is over, let’s take a look at the myriad factors that drove New York’s longest winning streak since 2013 — because the nine-game streak’s end doesn’t necessarily mean the end of the team’s run as an Eastern Conference playoff threat. [Read more]( [7. Does CPAC Even Matter Anymore?]( [SlackChat-0308-4×3]( Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [8. Who’s The Team To Beat At The World Baseball Classic?]( [San Diego Padres pitcher Yu Darvish during the first day of the Japanese national team's training camp]( On top of all those strange new rules, there’s another twist to baseball this March: the return of the World Baseball Classic, the always-entertaining tournament that is essentially baseball’s equivalent of the World Cup. (The rules are similar, too, with a 20-team group stage followed by an eight-team knockout round.) [Read more]( [9. Does It Matter Where COVID-19 Came From?]( [A staff works in the pop-up Huoyan Laboratory specialized in the nucleic acid test on 2019-nCoV in Wuhan]( The Department of Energy says COVID-19 was caused by a lab leak. But that doesn’t mean COVID-19 was definitely caused by a lab leak. In fact, the agency’s report, which made headlines last week, states it has “low confidence” in its own conclusion. Scientific evidence, on the other hand, has overwhelmingly pointed toward a natural spillover from animals to humans — the same origin of nearly every other outbreak in history and a growing threat. [Read more]( [10. Don’t Be Shocked If Justin Verlander Keeps Defying Baseball’s Aging Curve]( [Jasen Vinlove / Miami Marlins / Getty Images]( When the New York Mets signed Justin Verlander to a two-year, $86 million contract in December, there were a few reasonable ways for fans to look at it. Yes, Verlander is entering his age-40 season. But he is also the defending American League Cy Young Award winner. And sure, he underwent Tommy John surgery as recently as September 2020. But his reconstructed elbow has less than 200 MLB innings on it since that procedure, including the 2022 postseason. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Few Americans Think AI Will Do More Good Than Harm]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.