Morning Distribution for Thursday, February 23, 2023

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Morning Distribution]( Thursday, February 23, 2023 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [POLLSTER-BANS-2023-4×3]( [Why We’re Preemptively Banning A Pollster — And Not Banning Another]( By [Nathaniel Rakich]( and [Mary Radcliffe]( FiveThirtyEight is in the business of [grading]( and [reporting]( on polls — so when a pollster allegedly engages in misconduct, we take it seriously. In November 2022, an [anonymous interviewee]( in The Tartan, Carnegie Mellon University’s student-run newspaper, alleged that Sean McElwee, the then-executive director of polling firm Data For Progress, was betting on elections. We immediately began our own investigation, led by reporter Kaleigh Rogers; today, we [published the results of that investigation]( — the full story of McElwee and Data For Progress as best we could determine. The allegations also prompted us to reconsider McElwee’s and Data For Progress’s inclusion in our [polling aggregates](. Based on the results of our investigation, we have decided to ban any future polls conducted under McElwee’s direction from appearing in FiveThirtyEight’s database, averages and forecasts. However, Data For Progress — which recently severed ties with McElwee — will remain a pollster in good standing. Here’s why we arrived at these decisions. FiveThirtyEight is intentionally permissive about which polls we include in our database and averages; polls must meet only the bare minimum methodological or qualitative standards. But our [polls policy]( does state that “we will permanently ban any pollster found to be … engaging in betting markets that may be directly impacted by their survey work.” [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Some Republicans Are Souring On Aid To Ukraine]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.