FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, January 29, 2023 [1. What To Watch For In The NFL’s Conference Championship Games]( [Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase running back Joe Mixon]( If this weekend’s conference championship games feel as if they were predestined, it’s no accident. In fact, many prognosticators projected a version of this for these four teams — the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC and the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC — as the season began. That means we could be in for an outstanding weekend of games between the very cream of the NFL’s crop. [Read more]( [2. Meet Lewin Díaz, Baseball’s Biggest Hot-Potato Prospect]( [LEWIN-DIAZ-4×3]( During the MLB offseason, we can rely on at least two things: players changing uniforms via trades or free-agent signings, and the ensuing roster crunch that usually follows. Oftentimes, these moves require making space on the team for said new acquisition, resulting in bumping a player who either may not be a good fit for the organization, is in excess at his position (making him expendable) or both. [Read more]( [3. Which Parents Are The Most Tired?]( [0120_POLLA-4×3]( Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. [Read more]( [4. Republicans Didn’t Get Less Popular After All That Speaker Drama — They Were Already Unpopular]( [Newly-elected Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy points to a newly installed sign above his office]( The election for speaker of the House may have gripped Washington, D.C., for almost a week earlier this month, but the rest of the country apparently reacted with a big fat shrug. [Read more]( [5. How The Eagles Built A Winner By Overdrafting Quarterbacks]( [NFC Divisional Playoffs – New York Giants v Philadelphia Eagles 4×3]( According to most of the football world, Jalen Hurts should not be a Philadelphia Eagle. Even Hurts was incredulous at the beginning. When his phone rang on draft day and the area code was 215 — a Pennsylvania number — at first Hurts thought it was the Steelers calling. Instead, it was Eagles general manager Howie Roseman telling Hurts they were selecting him with the 53rd pick of the 2020 NFL draft. [Read more]( [6. Rudy Gobert Was Supposed To Take The T-Wolves To The Next Level. Why Isn’t It Working?]( [Rudy Gobert of the Minnesota Timberwolves]( After making just their second playoff appearance in nearly 20 years, the Minnesota Timberwolves entered full win-now mode with a blockbuster trade during the offseason — sending five players and four first-round picks to the Utah Jazz in exchange for superstar center Rudy Gobert. The expectation was that pairing Gobert with fellow All-Star big Karl-Anthony Towns would form a dominant frontcourt duo and allow the franchise to continue its ascent. [Read more]( [7. Yes, 2023 Is An Election Year. Here Are The Races To Watch.]( [A human hand drops a ballot into a box.]( President this, Senate that. FiveThirtyEight has already expended ample digital ink looking ahead to the elections that will take place in 2024, including the nascent presidential nomination race and the fate of the Democrats’ slim majority in the U.S. Senate. We’re not going to apologize for this — and don’t pretend you’re not interested, too. [Read more]( [8. Liverpool Can’t Spend Its Way Out Of This Mess]( [Liverpool FC v Chelsea FC – Premier League]( When the 2022-23 Premier League season began, the FiveThirtyEight Club Soccer Predictions model gave Liverpool the second-best odds of winning the title. More than five months and 20 matchweeks later, however, the Reds sit ninth in the table, behind minnows like Brentford, newly promoted Fulham, and Brighton & Hove Albion, and the model gives them a less than 1 percent chance of domestic glory. [Read more]( [9. Is It Fair To Compare Biden’s And Trump’s Classified Documents Scandals?]( [A cartoon head of Nathaniel Rakich with a thought bubble that reads, "These are fundamentally the same genre of scandal, but the degree of seriousness is different."]( Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [10. 3 Players Could Fall Agonizingly Short Of Baseball Hall Of Fame Election This Year]( [2023-HOF-VOTING-4×3]( The election for the Baseball Hall of Fame is fun again — mostly. After a decade of debate over whether baseball bad boys such as Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling were worthy of induction into the sport’s most sacred shrine, that trio has lapsed off the regular ballot (though they are still periodically eligible for reconsideration in a separate special election that is held every third December). By contrast, this year’s election — the results of which will be announced Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET — is headlined by Scott Rolen, Todd Helton and Billy Wagner, three candidates untainted by allegations of steroid use or other major controversies. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Baby Boomers’ Strength Was In Their Numbers. That’s Changing.]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.