FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular In Politics] Thursday, January 19, 2023 [1. DeSantis Is Polling Well Against Trump — As Long As No One Else Runs]( [TRUMP-DESANTIS-POLLS-4×3]( I’m not happy about it, and you’re not happy about it, but it’s time to talk about polls of the 2024 Republican presidential primary. We’re still (probably) more than a year away from the Iowa caucuses, yet pollsters have already asked about the Republican primary at least 96 times since the 2022 midterm elections. [Read more]( [2. What Will New Leadership In Congress Mean For Democrats?]( [Speaker Vote]( House Democrats officially elected New York Rep. Hakeem Jeffries to be their leader this past weekend, coalescing around a fresher face as the new Republican majority took control. The new top three leaders will consist of Jeffries, Massachusetts Rep. Katherine Clark, who will serve as the new minority whip, and California Rep. Pete Aguilar, who will chair the Democratic caucus. [Read more]( [3. How Americans’ Support For Aiding Ukraine Has Evolved]( [0113_POLLA-4×3]( Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. [Read more]( [4. Kevin McCarthy’s Job Just Got Harder]( [McCarthy elected US House speaker on 15th round of voting]( If Rep. Kevin McCarthy didn’t have a lucky number before, it’s surely 15 now. Just after midnight on Saturday morning, the House of Representatives finally voted to make McCarthy speaker of the House on the 15th ballot — the resolution of an historic, multi-day staredown with conservative hardliners who will now wield tremendous power in the House. [Read more]( [5. Rents Are Still Higher Than Before The Pandemic — And Assistance Programs Are Drying Up]( [US-ECONOMY-HOUSING-RENT]( Cleveland is one of the poorest cities in the country. It’s far from the expensive coastal cities like New York City and San Francisco, where astronomically high rents are common. Cleveland doesn’t fit the stereotype of a city people want to move to; in fact, it has been losing population since the 1950s. But since 2020, there have been some wild fluctuations in the rental market. Even in many cities that had previously been affordable, rents keep getting higher, stretching more families’ budgets and spreading a largely coastal problem to nearly every part of the country. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Forecasts Latest Senate Forecast [2022 Senate Forecast]( Latest House Forecast [2022 House Forecast]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Why Gas Stoves Became A Casualty In The Culture War]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.