Morning Distribution for Tuesday, January 10, 2023

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Morning Distribution]( Tuesday, January 10, 2023 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [TRUMP-DESANTIS-POLLS-4×3]( [DeSantis Is Polling Well Against Trump — As Long As No One Else Runs]( By [Nathaniel Rakich]( I’m not happy about it, and you’re not happy about it, but it’s time to talk about [polls of the 2024 Republican presidential primary](. We’re still ([probably]( more than a year away from the Iowa caucuses, yet pollsters have already asked about the Republican primary at least 96 times since the 2022 midterm elections. Yes, it’s still very early to be looking at these polls, and yes, a lot can change in the next 12 months. But we are now in the period where 2024 polls are at least somewhat interesting. As FiveThirtyEight’s Geoffrey Skelley [has written]( national polls conducted in the calendar year before the election are fairly predictive of who will eventually win the nomination. Or they would be … if this cycle’s polls weren’t all over the place. Some, like [Morning Consult’s tracking poll]( give former President Donald Trump a wide lead. Others, like [a December survey from YouGov/The Economist](, show Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis far ahead, despite the fact that he has not yet officially launched a campaign. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: What The Speakership Vote Tells Us About The GOP]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.