FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, December 11, 2022 [1. Why Kyrsten Sinema Left The Democratic Party]( [Senate Hearing Examines Social Media’s Impact On Homeland Security]( Remember when Georgia’s runoff gave Democrats 51 seats in the U.S. Senate? Well, Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema said not so fast, my friend: This morning, Sinema announced she would change her party registration to independent and no longer identify as a Democrat moving forward. On paper, then, the next Senate’s makeup will be 49 Republicans, 48 Democrats and three independents. [Read more]( [2. How Geno Smith Found Redemption In 2022]( [New York Giants v Seattle Seahawks]( It’s fair to say that both Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks entered the 2022 season with very low expectations. Coming off a disappointing 7-10 season in 2021 that saw the team finish last in the NFC West, Seattle was considered to be in full rebuild mode after trading away or releasing core players — a group that included team captains Bobby Wagner (a six-time All-Pro) and Russell Wilson (a Super Bowl-winning franchise quarterback). Smith, starting in Wilson’s place, was entering his 10th year in the NFL and had spent most of those years as a backup. Indeed, he hadn’t been an opening-day starter since 2014. [Read more]( [3. The Cavaliers Bet Big On Donovan Mitchell. Here’s Why It’s Working.]( [Cleveland Cavaliers player Donovan Mitchell smiles on the court]( Last season, the Cleveland Cavaliers were arguably the NBA’s most improved team. After going just 22-50 during the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 campaign, Cleveland improved its record all the way to 44-38, making the second-largest season-to-season jump in winning percentage behind the Minnesota Timberwolves. And on a per-possession basis, the Cavs lapped the field in improvement with a 10.8-point spike in their net rating — 2.7 points per 100 possessions better than that of any other squad. [Read more]( [4. How Kevin McCarthy Could Lose The Election For Speaker Of The House]( [Election Night in DC]( Rep. Kevin McCarthy is the obvious candidate for the next speaker of the House. Republicans flipped the chamber in 2022, and McCarthy is already House minority leader. He has no serious rivals, and former President Donald Trump has endorsed his bid. [Read more]( [5. Americans Generally Support Unions — And Averting A Rail Strike]( [POLLA_1209-4×3]( When President Biden signed a bill to prevent a rail-worker strike this past Friday, it was only the latest in a series of union actions that have gotten national attention in the past few years. Starbucks and Amazon workers are trying to unionize around the country. Nationwide, 78,000 workers went on strike in the first half of the year. Members of The New York Times Guild walked out on Thursday. [Read more]( [6. Supernovas And Surprising Stars Who Might Decide The World Cup Quarterfinals]( [WCQF-4×3]( The quarterfinals of the 2022 World Cup kick off on Friday — and as it stands, Brazil remains favored to win the whole thing (at 33 percent), while Portugal (14 percent), England (14 percent), Argentina (13 percent), and France (12 percent) have roughly the same odds of lifting the trophy two Sundays from now. Ordinarily at this stage in the tournament, we’d break down each head-to-head matchup and try to figure out which teams stood the best chance of advancing to the semifinals. On this occasion, however, we thought it would be fun to profile individual players instead. [Read more]( [7. Georgia Can’t Be Reduced To One Political Color]( [Warnock Election Night party]( ATLANTA — I have a confession to make. My editors tasked me with flying out to Georgia to cover the state’s Senate runoff and asked me to assess what was creating a recent (and seemingly) nonstop cycle of neck-and-neck political contests. But before I even set foot on the plane, I was skeptical that one runoff alone could serve as a crystal ball to predict the state’s political future. Runoffs are their own animal. [Read more]( [8. Are The Democrats Screwed In The Senate After 2024?]( [Control Of Congress Remains Uncertain With Consequential Midterm Elections Approaching]( I’m not that impressed by long-term projections of Democratic doom in the Senate. Mostly that’s because I’m not that impressed by long-term political projections in general. Political coalitions change; not many people would have had it on their bingo card that Democrats would obtain a Senate majority in 2020 by winning two runoffs in Georgia, and then would actually expand on that majority in 2022 following another runoff in Georgia despite their party controlling the White House. [Read more]( [9. It Took A Year, But The Seattle Kraken Have Been Released]( [Washington Capitals v Seattle Kraken]( Are expansion teams now about instant gratification, or do good things still come to those who wait? [Read more]( [10. Kylian Mbappé Is Having A World Cup For The Ages]( [WCMBAPPE-4×3]( If France won the last men’s World Cup thanks in part to then-19-year-old Kylian Mbappé, then should Les Bleus repeat in Qatar he ought to take the Jules Rimet trophy home for himself. The full-grown phenom has been, well, phenomenal: After scoring twice in France’s 3-1 win over Poland on Sunday, he’s tallied two more goals than anyone else at the tournament — and France is three wins away from their third title in the past seven World Cups. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: How Democrats Won The Georgia Runoff]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.