Morning Distribution for Wednesday, November 16, 2022

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Morning Distribution]( Wednesday, November 16, 2022 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [US-VOTE-ELECTION-FLORIDA-DESANTIS]( [Why DeSantis Is A Major Threat To Trump’s Reelection]( By [Nate Silver]( The case for Donald Trump as the front-runner for the 2024 Republican nomination is incredibly obvious. As my colleague Nathaniel Rakich pointed out after the [former president announced his reelection bid]( Trump has extremely strong favorability ratings among Republican voters. He’s [remade the GOP in his image](. And predictions of his demise have a notoriously poor track record: I was [one of those people]( who was far too skeptical of his chances for the 2016 Republican nomination for far too long. And yet, since the midterm elections, something seems to have shifted. People putting money on the line have moved away from Trump in the last week. He now has only a 35 percent chance of winning the 2024 nomination according to [prediction markets]( down from what it was before Election Day, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is up to 40 percent (though DeSantis has slightly fallen and Trump has risen immediately after Trump’s announcement to run for president). If I were allowed to bet on politics, I might buy some Trump stock at that price: These prediction markets aren’t always so wise (they did [comparatively poorly in the midterms, for instance]( and it’s hard to imagine that, given all the influence he still has over Republicans, Trump’s chances are less than 1 in 3. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Why Democrats Beat Historical Trends In 2022]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.