FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular In Politics] Thursday, November 3, 2022 [1. The Supreme Court Could Overturn Another Major Precedent. This Time, Americans Might Agree.]( [POLLA_1028-4×3]( The Supreme Court is poised to upend decades of precedent on affirmative action. This Monday, the justices will hear two cases challenging race-conscious admissions policies at Harvard University and the University of North Carolina. The universities use race as one of many factors when deciding which applicants to accept — a practice that has been affirmed multiple times by the Supreme Court, including in a 2003 case where the justices ruled that ensuring racial diversity in higher education is important enough to justify the limited use of race in college admissions. [Read more]( [2. Where Our Model Thinks The Polls Might Be Biased]( [2022-ELECTIONUPDATE-1028-4×3]( With less than two weeks until Election Day, Republicans now have a 48 percent chance of taking the Senate, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast, their highest figure since late July and putting the battle for Senate control officially in toss-up territory. But whether that shift will continue or has peaked is in the eye of the beholder. [Read more]( [3. Most Candidates Who Think 2020 Was Rigged Are Probably Going To Win In November]( [“Candace” Hosted By Candace Owens]( In May, Anna Paulina Luna donned a red-carpet-worthy ball gown to a screening of “2000 Mules,” a debunked documentary that falsely claims to show evidence of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election. In June, she made her stance on the 2020 election clear in an interview with MSNBC: “I believe that President Trump won that election, and I do believe that voter fraud occurred.” And in November, she will very likely be elected to Congress. [Read more]( [4. How Much Power Do Christians Really Have?]( [INVISIBLE-DIVIDES-1027-4×3]( Welcome to Invisible Divides, a series exploring the profound differences in worldview between Democrats and Republicans. These beliefs about education, religion, gender, race, and political extremism align with partisanship — but run much deeper. Differences like these don’t just influence the ways Democrats and Republicans vote, but also how they think about their place in America. And they help explain why opposing views on important issues today seem increasingly irreconcilable. [Read more]( [5. Why I’m Telling My Friends That The Senate Is A Toss-Up]( [2022-ELECTIONUPDATE-1021-4×3]( The Senate started out as a toss-up when we launched our forecast in June — and after a summer in which political developments mostly played to Democrats’ favor, there is now clear movement back toward Republicans. The FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast gives Democrats a 58 percent chance of keeping control of the Senate, down from a peak of 71 percent last month. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Forecasts Latest Senate Forecast [2022 Senate Forecast]( Latest House Forecast [2022 House Forecast]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: There Are At Least Seven Incredibly Close Senate Races]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.