Morning Distribution for Wednesday, October 26, 2022

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Morning Distribution]( Wednesday, October 26, 2022 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [Arizona Democratic gubernatorial candidate Katie Hobbs]( [The Midterms Could Set A New Record For Female Governors — And Send Fewer Women To Congress]( By [Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux]( and [Meredith Conroy]( For political candidates from underrepresented groups, progress can be uneven — and the 2022 midterms could be a great example of that, at least when it comes to women candidates. On the one hand, it looks like we’re heading for a record-setting year for women in governors’ races. According to our forecast, there are 12 female gubernatorial candidates who have at least a 50-in-100 chance of winning in FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast, as of Tuesday at 12 p.m. Eastern. If each were to win their election, it would be historic. Up until now, [only nine women have simultaneously occupied]( governors’ mansions. And two of the most competitive governors’ races — in Oregon and Arizona — have only women as major candidates, which increases the odds that the record will be broken this year. But the outlook isn’t so good for women running for Congress. Several of the most vulnerable congressional candidates are women, including many Democratic House candidates who flipped seats in 2018. And it’s quite possible that the number of women in Congress will decline after the November elections. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Increased Ad Spending Won’t Save Democrats]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.