FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, October 16, 2022 [1. Betting Markets Are Treating The Midterm Elections Like It’s A Presidential Election]( [2022-ELECTIONUPDATE-1014-4×3]( For the past few weeks, we’ve been trying to figure out to what extent, if any, Republicans have regained ground in the race for control of Congress. And the answer is … probably some, but not necessarily as much as the conventional wisdom holds. [Read more]( [2. Could Pot Be Decriminalized Before Biden Leaves Office?]( [A demonstrator waves a flag with marijuana leaves depicted on it in front of the White House]( President Biden’s surprise marijuana reform announcement last week has mostly gotten attention for pardoning thousands convicted of simple possession of marijuana, a move that many observers have called a small step towards criminal justice reform. But it’s the mostly overlooked second part of Biden’s announcement — a directive to reevaluate pot’s federal status as a Schedule I drug — that has the potential to change the future of American cannabis policy. [Read more]( [3. Five Decades Into The War On Drugs, Decriminalizing Marijuana Has High Bipartisan SupportÂ]( [1014_POLLA-4×3]( Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. [Read more]( [4. Everyone’s A Favorite In Our 2022-23 NBA Forecast]( [NBAPREVIEWS_4x3]( When the 2022-23 NBA season begins next week, our RAPTOR prediction model sees a league with a field of title contenders more wide-open than at any time in recent history. [Read more]( [5. How We’re Improving Our NBA Forecast For 2022-23]( [NBA-prediction-2022-time_4x3]( Ever since we introduced a depth charts-based method for keeping track of NBA rosters in our NBA forecast model, one of its biggest recurring criticisms — from those outside the ranks of Boston Celtics haters, that is — has been that the playing-time projections are just off for certain teams and players. That’s fair: Though we’ve done our best to apportion the 240 individual minutes available on each team per regulation game, the results have not always been completely precise. And since predicted minutes play such a heavy role in determining a team’s performance rating for each game, these differences in playing time affected our game-to-game projections. [Read more]( [6. The Jan. 6 Hearings Are Over For Now. Trump’s Election Fraud Claims Are Not.]( [A video of former President Donald Trump is played during a hearing by the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack]( In a dramatic ending on Thursday to the final scheduled public hearing of the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack, the committee unanimously voted to subpoena former President Donald Trump. “We are obligated to seek answers directly from the man who set this all in motion, and every American is entitled to those answers,” said committee vice chair Rep. Liz Cheney ahead of the vote. [Read more]( [7. What Attacks On John Fetterman’s Health Reveal About Disability And Politics]( [Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman]( In the months since John Fetterman had a stroke, the Democratic candidate for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat has returned to the campaign trail and started doing interviews — while his opponent’s attacks on his health have grown more and more intense. [Read more]( [8. Can Democrats Win 52 Senate Seats And Kill The Filibuster?]( [52-SENATORS-4×3]( Democrats may currently control the Senate, but many within the party believe 52 Democratic senators are necessary for a true governing majority. That’s because moderate Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema are reluctant to change the Senate rules and abolish or circumvent the filibuster, which requires a 60-vote supermajority to vote on most legislation. [Read more]( [9. Denny Hamlin Is NASCAR’s Best Driver Without A Title. That Could Change Soon.]( [NASCAR Cup Series Hollywood Casino 400 – Qualifying]( Even by the standards of a career filled with beefs, Denny Hamlin’s 2022 season has been particularly drama-filled. He’s feuded with multiple drivers, was ordered to undergo sensitivity training in April for retweeting a racist meme, became the first racer since 1960 to have a win taken away during a post-race inspection in July and, more recently, has been among NASCAR’s most outspoken critics over the new next-gen car’s safety concerns — outright calling for the sport to have “new leadership” earlier this month. Nearly 20 years into his Cup Series career, Hamlin has shifted his prickly persona and knack for making enemies (which he admits hurts his popularity among fans) into high gear. [Read more]( [10. Why Kansas’s Democratic Governor Isn’t Talking About Abortion — But Her GOP Opponent Is]( [Election 2022 Kansas Governor Debate]( It’s a familiar pattern for this year’s midterm elections: One candidate for governor is trying to make the other one talk about abortion. But in most states, it’s the Democrat who’s pushing abortion into the conversation. In Kansas, it’s the Republican. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Is Oregon Going To Elect A Republican Governor?]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.