FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, October 9, 2022 [1. Nevada Could Be Senate Republicans’ Ace In The Hole]( [2022-ELECTIONUPDATE-1007-4×3]( On the surface, Nevada seems to validate the otherwise somewhat unsuccessful hypothesis of the 2002 book “The Emerging Democratic Majority.” Authors John Judis and Ruy Teixeira predicted that Nevada would become a light-blue state as Democrats held onto their unionized, working-class base and demographic change brought new Democratic voters into the fold. [Read more]( [2. When Did Americans Stop Caring About COVID-19?]( [1007_POLLA-4×3]( Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. [Read more]( [3. Can The Avalanche Repeat? Will The Lightning Rebound? What To Watch For In The 2022-23 NHL Season]( [2022 NHL Stanley Cup Final – Game Five]( The NHL will drop the puck on its 2022-23 season today when the Nashville Predators and San Jose Sharks square off in Prague as part of the 2022 NHL Global Series. Playing in the breathtaking Bohemian city to a crowd of hockey-mad Czechs might be the only noteworthy thing each team does all season, however. According to the FiveThirtyEight NHL Elo forecast model, the Preds will likely struggle to sneak into the playoffs’ back door, while the Sharks are in danger of finishing the season at the bottom of the Pacific. At least they’ll always have Prague. [Read more]( [4. The Dodgers Are Big Favorites In Our MLB Forecast — But Anything Can Happen In October]( [Los Angeles Dodgers v Arizona Diamondbacks]( Baseball’s postseason is finally upon us, and that means it’s playoff prediction time for our MLB forecast model. Before first pitch in today’s wild card quadruple-header, let’s run through how our Elo-based projections see the October (and November) action playing out. [Read more]( [5. The Mets May Be The First Victim Of MLB’s New Postseason Format]( [Pittsburgh Pirates v New York Mets]( A common gripe, as Major League Baseball’s postseason ballooned in recent years, has been that the lowered standard of admission would devalue and de-intensify the regular season. Gotta-have-it games, tough managerial decisions, final-out bursts of euphoria or despair — for the best teams, the teams that really matter, these sorts of things would be consigned to October, the six preceding months a mere formality. [Read more]( [6. The Ravens Should Have Gone For It]( [Buffalo Bills v Baltimore Ravens]( Stop me if you’ve heard this one: An NFL head coach decides to go for it on fourth down in a big, closely fought game. The team fails the attempt and goes on to lose the game. Fans are outraged, and media members are contemptuous. [Read more]( [7. Why Republicans Could Win Oregon’s Governorship For The First Time In 40 Years]( [2022-ELECTIONUPDATE-1005-OR-4×3]( No state voting for governor this year has seen a longer Republican drought than Oregon. In 1982, Republican Gov. Vic Atiyeh handily won reelection, but since then Democrats have come out on top in 10 consecutive gubernatorial elections, allowing them to govern Oregon for nearly four decades. [Read more]( [8. John Fetterman’s Lead In Pennsylvania Is Tightening — And So Are Democrats’ Chances In The Senate]( [2022-ELECTIONUPDATE-1005-4×3]( Pennsylvania was supposed to be the Democrats’ insurance policy. The state’s Senate seat is currently held by a Republican, but Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman has comfortably led the race since August. If Democrats win Pennsylvania, their chance of winning the Senate would be 81 in 100. It would even allow them to withstand the loss of one of their own Senate seats (say, in Georgia or Nevada) and still retain control of the chamber. [Read more]( [9. How Hurricane Ian Could Affect Ron DeSantis’s Political Future]( [Florida’s Southern Gulf Coast Continues Clean Up Efforts In Wake Of Hurricane Ian]( While Hurricane Ian is primarily a human and meteorological story, it is also a political story. Ian is the first hurricane to make landfall in Florida since Gov. Ron DeSantis was elected in 2018. As a result, it has the potential to be a defining moment for his governorship. [Read more]( [10. The Datasets We’re Looking At This Week]( [The words "data Is plural" written in red on a white background]( You’re reading Data Is Plural, a weekly newsletter of useful/curious datasets. Below you’ll find the Oct. 5, 2022, edition, reprinted with permission at FiveThirtyEight. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Do Scandals Like Herschel Walker’s Still Matter To Voters?]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.