FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular In Politics] Thursday, September 22, 2022 [1. Will The Polls Overestimate Democrats Again?]( [2022-ELECTIONUPDATE-0916-4×3]( As Democrats’ prospects for the midterms have improved — they’re now up to a 71 percent chance of keeping the Senate and a 29 percent chance of retaining the House, according to the 2022 FiveThirtyEight midterm election forecast — I’ve observed a corresponding increase in concern among liberals that the polls might overestimate Democrats’ position again, as they did in 2016 and 2020. Even among commenters who are analyzing the race from an arm’s-length distance, there sometimes seems to be a presumption that the polls will be biased toward Democrats. [Read more]( [2. What Went Down During The Final Primary Night Of 2022]( [2022-SEP-13-LB-4×3-Nolive]( [Read more]( [3. Why Republicans Keep Failing To Pass Abortion Bans]( [Abortion South Carolina]( Republican legislators have been waiting for years to ban abortion. But now that their moment is here, they can’t agree about what to do with it. [Read more]( [4. This Candidate Thinks The 2020 Election Was Illegitimate. But He’d Rather You Didn’t Know That.]( [ELECTIO-DENIERS-AADLAND-4×3]( Roughly 200 Republican candidates running for Senate, House, governor, attorney general or secretary of state have indicated publicly that the 2020 presidential election was illegitimate, despite all the evidence to the contrary. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Forecasts Latest Senate Forecast [2022 Senate Forecast]( Latest House Forecast [2022 House Forecast]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Which Party Are Latino Voters Choosing In 2022?]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.