FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular In Politics] Thursday, September 15, 2022 [1. Georgia’s Senate Race Is Much Closer Than The Governor Election. Will That Hold Until November?]( [2022-ELECTIONUPDATE-0906-4×3]( After a history-making 2020 and 2021, Georgia is once again on our minds with two high-profile statewide races on the ballot this November: the U.S. Senate race, a highly competitive contest between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker, as well as the gubernatorial contest, a high-octane rematch between Republican Gov. Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams. [Read more]( [2. Why A State Like Michigan Might Actually Be A Blue State]( [2022-ELECTIONUPDATE-0909-4×3]( Is Michigan a red state or a blue state? [Read more]( [3. What Is Republicans’ Path To Winning The Senate?]( [SlackChat_0908-4×3]( Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [4. Why Trump’s Presence In The Midterms Is Risky For The GOP]( [2022-ELECTIONUPDATE-0826-4×3]( Upset Democratic special election wins in Alaska and New York over the past two weeks are the latest sign that the political environment might be unusual for a midterm election. Frankly, the results since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade have looked more like 2018 than 2020, with Democrats competitive even in red-leaning districts. That probably won’t hold. [Read more]( [5. What’s Driving Biden’s Approval Rating Up?]( [0901_POLLA-4×3]( Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Forecasts Latest Senate Forecast [2022 Senate Forecast]( Latest House Forecast [2022 House Forecast]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: It’s Not Yet Time To Start Worrying About The Polls]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.