FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, September 4, 2022 [1. Why Trump’s Presence In The Midterms Is Risky For The GOP]( [2022-ELECTIONUPDATE-0826-4×3]( Upset Democratic special election wins in Alaska and New York over the past two weeks are the latest sign that the political environment might be unusual for a midterm election. Frankly, the results since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade have looked more like 2018 than 2020, with Democrats competitive even in red-leaning districts. That probably won’t hold. [Read more]( [2. What’s Driving Biden’s Approval Rating Up?]( [0901_POLLA-4×3]( Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. [Read more]( [3. Forget Last Year’s Finish. Formula One Is Drama-Free Again.]( [Formula 1 Rolex Belgian Grand Prix 2022]( With Formula One returning from summer break at last weekend’s Belgian Grand Prix, there was some optimism that a resurgent Mercedes or a more competent Ferrari would close the gap against Red Bull and provide an exciting finish to 2022. That hope grew once a series of technical penalties during qualifying forced championship leader Max Verstappen to start just 14th on the grid. If ever there was a chance for, say, seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton to grab a statement victory and position himself for an encore of last year’s neck-and-neck title fight, this might have been it. [Read more]( [4. What Democrats’ Win In Alaska Tells Us About November]( [U.S House candidate Mary Peltola]( For the second time in as many weeks, Democrats have won a competitive special election. And by the numbers, this win was even more impressive than last week’s victory in New York’s 19th District. [Read more]( [5. Which Basketball Schools Are Pretending To Be Football Schools?]( [FOOTBALLVBBALL-2-4×3]( Deciding what’s a “football school” or a “basketball school” is an inexact science. Longstanding tradition — not wins and losses — often determines whether most fans’ hearts belong to the gridiron or the hardwood. Culturally, Florida State didn’t stop being a football school during its recent stretch of substandard performance, nor did Michigan adopt the persona of a basketball school even as its men’s team made multiple Final Fours in the 2010s (and its football faltered). And Kentucky, where men’s basketball coach John Calipari recently made headlines for speaking the obvious, is not a football school — despite an impressive resurgence for the Wildcats on Saturdays in recent years. [Read more]( [6. The Datasets We’re Looking At This Week]( [The words "data Is plural" written in red on a white background]( You’re reading Data Is Plural, a weekly newsletter of useful/curious datasets. Below you’ll find the Aug. 31, 2022, edition, reprinted with permission at FiveThirtyEight. [Read more]( [7. Meet 6 Democrats Of Color Who Want To See Their Party Change]( [VOICES-OF-COLOR-0831-4×3]( Welcome to Voices Of Color, a column that explores what’s on the mind of voters of color in this year’s midterm elections. Too often, media coverage focuses on the political preferences of white people with euphemisms like “suburban women” or “middle class.” But in this column, we want to know what makes voters of color tick. [Read more]( [8. Dylan Cease Fixed His Fastball — And Turned His Slider Into MLB’s Best Pitch]( [Chicago White Sox v Texas Rangers]( Some MLB pitchers have fastballs that can reach triple digits, pushing the limits of what is possible for the human body. Others have breaking balls that disappear, making hitters look like Little Leaguers at the plate. A select few can do both, and within that group, only the most elite can keep it up for more than a few batters at a time. White Sox starter Dylan Cease is one of those super-elite pitchers. [Read more]( [9. A’ja Wilson Has Always Done It All For The Aces. This Year, She Did Even More.]( [A'ja Wilson fires off the ball in a game against Seattle]( UPDATE (Aug. 30, 2022, 1:55 p.m.): Shortly after this article was published, A’ja Wilson was named WNBA Defensive Player Of The Year. [Read more]( [10. More Democrats Are Leaving The House — And That Could Help Republicans Win]( [Rep. Ed Perlmutter]( Democrats are feeling pretty buoyant these days. Last week, they won a highly competitive special election in New York’s 19th Congressional District, which came on the heels of other stronger-than-expected special election performances since the Supreme Court’s June 24 decision to overturn the constitutional right to an abortion. And earlier this month, pro-abortion rights forces turned back a state constitutional amendment in Kansas that would have allowed for an abortion ban there. Finally, the two parties are also running neck and neck in generic ballot polling, which asks voters whether they plan to vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate this fall, after Republicans led by about 2 percentage points prior to the Dobbs ruling. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Why Sarah Palin Lost]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.