Morning Distribution for Tuesday, August 30, 2022

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Morning Distribution]( Tuesday, August 30, 2022 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [Rep. Ed Perlmutter]( [More Democrats Are Leaving The House — And That Could Help Republicans Win]( By [Geoffrey Skelley]( Democrats are feeling pretty buoyant these days. Last week, they won a highly competitive special election in New York’s 19th Congressional District, which came on the heels of other [stronger-than-expected special election performances]( since the [Supreme Court’s June 24 decision]( to overturn the constitutional right to an abortion. And earlier this month, pro-abortion rights forces [turned back]( a state constitutional amendment in Kansas that would have allowed for an abortion ban there. Finally, the two parties are also running neck and neck [in generic ballot polling]( which asks voters whether they plan to vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate this fall, after Republicans led by about 2 percentage points prior to the Dobbs ruling. Yet if we zero in on the House, the overall terrain is still quite favorable to the GOP. After all, FiveThirtyEight’s [2022 midterm election forecast]( still gives Republicans about a better than 3 in 4 shot of capturing the lower chamber. The GOP has lost ground in the forecast since June, but its continued edge comes down to factors such as [geography]( (Democrats are [concentrated]( in metropolitan areas), [redistricting]( (Republicans once again have more favorable seats) and [history]( (the president’s party almost always loses House seats in midterms). [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: What’s Behind Biden’s Rising Approval]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.