FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, August 21, 2022 [1. Can Tim Ryan Really Win Ohio’s Senate Race?]( [2022-ELECTIONUPDATE-0819-4×3]( Ohio is the type of Senate race that Democrats shouldn’t have much business competing in. The state is increasingly red, having voted for former President Donald Trump by 8 percentage points in 2020. True, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown was reelected in Ohio in 2018 — but that was in a strongly Democratic environment that is unlikely to be replicated this November, in what’s expected to be a Republican-leaning year. [Read more]( [2. Americans Are Well Aware Of Climate Change — But Not About The Government’s Efforts To Fight It]( [0819_POLLA-4×3]( Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. [Read more]( [3. International Players Are Making Their Mark On The WNBA Again]( [WNBA_INTERNATIONAL-4×3]( With just under three and a half minutes to go in Game 1 of the New York Liberty’s opening-round playoff series against the Chicago Sky, Marine Johannès dribbled left off of a ball screen, drew two defenders and, using her off hand, whipped a perfect behind-the-head pass to Natasha Howard for an easy layup to trim New York’s deficit to 4 points. [Read more]( [4. NASCAR’s Playoff System Is Obsessed With Winning — To A Fault]( [NASCAR Cup Series Federated Auto Parts 400 – Practice]( Things were going from bad to worse for Martin Truex Jr. In the thick of Sunday’s Federated Auto Parts 400 in Richmond, Virginia, the 2017 NASCAR Cup Series champion was hunting for a win to give himself a playoff spot but instead found himself hobbled. Truex had just gotten clipped by Ricky Stenhouse Jr. on Lap 156, and though he would battle back in the closing laps to finish seventh and ahead of fellow bubble driver Ryan Blaney, he lost ground in NASCAR’s playoff standings. As a result, the driver who ranks second in the 2022 field in average finishing position and fifth in total laps led probably needs a Hail Mary victory in one of the next two races just to qualify for one the sport’s 16 playoff spots. [Read more]( [5. Can We Expect Anything Other Than Biden vs. Trump In 2024?]( [SlackChat_0818-4×3]( Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [6. Why Daniel Jones Might Make A Leap — And Why Trey Lance Might Not]( [NFLSTORYLINE-4×3]( With the NFL season nearly upon us, every player in football is out to prove something. Some are battling for starting jobs or trying to validate the hype around their potential; others merely want to show they belong. With that in mind, here are three player storylines we’re watching with the preseason in full swing. [Read more]( [7. The Datasets We’re Looking At This Week]( [The words "data Is plural" written in red on a white background]( You’re reading Data Is Plural, a weekly newsletter of useful/curious datasets. Below you’ll find the Aug. 17, 2022, edition, reprinted with permission at FiveThirtyEight. [Read more]( [8. 4 Stats That Could Decide The First Round Of The WNBA Playoffs]( [2022-WNBA-PLAYOFF-PREVIEW-4×3]( The WNBA playoffs have arrived, and with them come a new set of matchups and storylines to watch. Will Seattle’s Sue Bird end her WNBA career with a fifth championship? Can Candace Parker and the Chicago Sky repeat? Will either the Las Vegas Aces or Connecticut Sun finally figure out how to convert regular-season success to a championship parade? (And where, exactly, would the Sun hold such a parade?) [Read more]( [9. With Cheney’s Loss, Just 2 House Republicans Who Voted To Impeach Trump Are On The Ballot In November]( [House January 6 Committee Holds Public Hearing]( Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s political future had long been in jeopardy. From voting to impeach then-President Donald Trump after the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol to repeatedly refuting his baseless claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him, Cheney has been one of Trump’s harshest critics. Now that outspokenness has come with a price. [Read more]( [10. Why Ilhan Omar Almost Lost Her Primary]( [OMAR-DISLIKED-4×3]( Conventional wisdom suggests that members of opposing political parties don’t like each other — and I mean really don’t like each other. But what does it mean when members of your own party are seemingly aching to get you out of office too? [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Early Returns In The Alaska Primary Were Bad For Trump]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.