Morning Distribution for Wednesday, July 20, 2022

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Morning Distribution]( Wednesday, July 20, 2022 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [New York Mets v Cincinnati Reds]( [Three-Quarters Of Baseball’s Playoff Spots Are Up For Grabs]( By [Neil Paine]( With the [All-Star Game]( and its many festivities ([go Juan Soto]( in the rearview mirror, MLB can now set its sights on the stretch run — and all of the playoff races that come with it. So with some help from [our forecast model]( let’s dig into the burning questions that will get answered as we approach October baseball. Who’s going to win the toss-up divisions? According to [our forecast model]( three divisions — the American League East (led by the New York Yankees), AL West (Houston Astros) and National League West (Los Angeles Dodgers) — are already all but locked up, with the leaders each possessing a 95 percent probability or better to win. But the other three are fairly close to being toss-ups. Who has the edge in MLB’s closest division races? Key stats, strength of schedule and division title probabilities for teams with a 1 percent chance or greater to win a division where the leader’s odds are under 95 percent [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Americans Aren’t Happy With Biden. Or Republicans.]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.