Morning Distribution for Friday, July 15, 2022

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Morning Distribution]( Friday, July 15, 2022 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [2022-ELECTIONUPDATE-0715-4×3]( [Biden Is Very Unpopular. It May Not Tell Us Much About The Midterms.]( By [Nate Silver]( This week, [a Siena College/New York Times poll]( showed President Biden with just a 33 percent approval rating, a result so poor that it touched off speculation — including from [yours truly]( — about whether he would even run again in 2024. The Siena/New York Times number is on the low end of the polling consensus, but Biden’s [approval rating in our polling average]( — about 39 percent — is nonetheless a [historically low number](. And yet, the same poll showed a [neck-and-neck race for Congress](. Democrats led by 1 percentage point among registered voters on the question of which party voters preferred controlled Congress and trailed by 1 point among likely voters. What to make of this seeming divergence? How much does the president’s approval rating actually matter for predicting congressional outcomes? [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: How Democrats Flipped Georgia in 2020]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.