FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, July 3, 2022 [1. The Toronto Blue Jays’ Stars Haven’t Delivered — But An Unsung Hero Is Picking Up The Slack]( [Baltimore Orioles v Toronto Blue Jays]( [Read more]( [2. Americans’ Views On Abortion Are Pretty Stagnant. Their Views On The Supreme Court Are Not.]( [0701_POLLA-4×3]( Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. [Read more]( [3. Why Republicans Are Favored To Win The House, But Not The Senate]( [538-2022-FORECAST-NATE-WRITEUP-4×3]( Republicans are substantial favorites to take over the U.S. House of Representatives following this November’s midterm elections, but the U.S. Senate is much more competitive, according to FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm election forecast, which launched today. Democrats are also favored to hang on to the governorships in a trio of swing states in the Rust Belt — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan — although they are significant underdogs to win high-profile gubernatorial races in Georgia and Texas against Republican incumbents. [Read more]( [4. Even Exceptions To Abortion Bans Pit A Mother’s Life Against Doctors’ Fears]( [abortion doulas in Falls Church]( Layla Houshmand was eight weeks pregnant in the spring of 2021 when she woke up to find her field of vision smeared with a hazy sheen, like Vaseline rubbed on the lens of a camera. She was already worried about her own health. She’d spent the day before nursing herself through the pain of a migraine. But now the headache was worse and her vision was blurring and Houshmand was even more scared. Then the vomiting began. Nothing would stay down. During one 90-minute appointment with an ophthalmologist, she remembered vomiting 20 times. [Read more]( [5. College Athletes Suffered When Schools Weren’t Ready For NIL]( [The national office of the NCAA in Indianapolis]( As reports of seven-figure name, image and likeness (NIL) deals for teenagers have swirled on social media — and while fans of The Good Old Days have derided those announcements as shameful evidence of how the NCAA landscape had irrevocably changed — some college athletes were asking journalists on social media how to file their taxes. [Read more]( [6. Jackie Young’s Breakout Has Lifted The Aces To The Top Of The WNBA]( [Jackie Young of the Las Vegas Aces]( In her fourth year in the WNBA, Jackie Young has taken a giant step up — all the way into the All-Star Game. Now the former No. 1 overall pick has only one question to answer: Can her breakout take the Las Vegas Aces to their first league championship? [Read more]( [7. The Datasets We’re Looking At This Week]( [The words "data is plural" in white over a red background]( You’re reading Data Is Plural, a weekly newsletter of useful/curious datasets. Below you’ll find the June 22, 2022, edition, reprinted with permission at FiveThirtyEight. [Read more]( [8. Where The Midterms Could Most Affect Abortion Access]( [Kansas reproductive rights advocates demonstrate in front of the state capitol]( On Friday, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, leaving it up to individual states to decide whether abortion is legal within their borders. As of 5 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, nine states have already banned or restricted the procedure, and by the end of July, at least another six will have joined them. But the post-Roe landscape could change even more dramatically after the 2022 midterm elections — especially in states where control of state government is on the line and where the future of abortion policy is up in the air. [Read more]( [9. 21 Republican Primaries And A Special Election To Watch On June 28]( [U.S. Representative Mary Miller and Rep. Lauren Boebert during a Save America Rally]( We already took a look at the nine Democratic primaries to watch in a preview yesterday, so now we’re back with the 21 GOP contests to watch tonight, plus a bonus special election. As with most Republican primaries this cycle, almost all the GOP contenders are favorably inclined toward former President Donald Trump, but they vary in just how much they support Trump or his false claims about fraud in the 2020 election. But importantly, Democrats are also meddling in many GOP primaries by spending money to boost the most extreme Republican candidates, aiming to make it easier for Democrats to win in November. [Read more]( [10. What Happens When You Cancel The Youth Olympic Games?]( [A player celebrates after winning a medal at the Youth Olympic Games]( The 2022 Youth Olympic Games were slated for Dakar, Senegal, in October and November, the first Olympic event to be staged in Africa. Like many other events during the COVID-19 pandemic, the quadrennial event was postponed by the International Olympic Committee. But in this case, the IOC took the step of moving the event back to 2026, a full four-year cycle, instead of giving Senegal a year or two to host the event safely. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Why The 2022 Forecast Suggests The Senate Is A Toss-Up]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.