FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, May 8, 2022 [1. Dusty Baker Was An All-Time Great Manager Long Before His 2,000th Win]( [Seattle Mariners v Houston Astros]( It takes a lot for a piece of baseball history to impress Houston Astros manager Dusty Baker. In 44 combined seasons as a major league player and manager, Baker has pretty much seen it all — as his players are constantly reminded. Witness 24-year-old rookie Astros shortstop Jeremy Peña’s reaction to learning that his dad was in the lineup for Baker’s first managerial win (nearly three decades ago), or this exchange with future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander over the milestones Baker has been a part of: [Read more]( [2. The Mavericks’ Coaches Have Been Here Before, Even If The Players Haven’t]( [Jason Kidd]( In the NBA playoffs, experience matters. FiveThirtyEight found that championship-winning rosters almost always have an above-average tally of career playoff minutes played. It’s such a good predictor of success that it’s a part of our NBA projections. [Read more]( [3. Where Americans Stand On Abortion, In 5 Charts]( [ABORTION-CHARTS-4×3]( Late Monday, we learned that the Supreme Court may be ready to overturn Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 decision that established the constitutional right to abortion. [Read more]( [4. Kevin Gausman Signed A $110 Million Deal. Then He Got Better.]( [Kevin Gausman of the Toronto Blue Jays]( Over the offseason, Kevin Gausman signed a five-year, $110 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays, one of the biggest contracts handed out this winter. For a then-30-year-old with only a season and a half’s worth of ace-like production, it was a big commitment, but one that ought to be worth it if he can keep pitching as he has since 2020. So far this season, Gausman has more than held up his end of the agreement. [Read more]( [5. The Numbers To Watch For Each WNBA Team]( [Sabrina Ionuescu, Aari Macdonald, Jonquel Jones, A'ja Wilson, Breanna Stewart]( The WNBA is back to kick off another season on Friday, and the FiveThirtyEight WNBA predictions are back as well, forecasting the outcome of each game and the season as a whole. This season projects to be a tight one, as our model sees three teams — the Connecticut Sun, Chicago Sky and Las Vegas Aces — with a 15 percent or better chance to win it all this fall. [Read more]( [6. The 10 Governorships Most Likely To Flip Parties In 2022]( [The Maryland State House and state flag]( The governor’s mansion has recently been a strong point for Republicans, as they’ve held a majority of the country’s governorships since the 2010 election. In fact, they currently control 28 governorships to the Democrats’ 22, and with 36 governorships up this year, they could widen that advantage, especially considering that President Biden’s approval rating is in the low 40s and the national political environment looks friendly toward Republicans. However, GOP gains in 2022 are not a given. [Read more]( [7. The Suns And Mavs Use Basketball’s Favorite Play In Very Different Ways]( [Chris Paul,Reggie Bullock]( For a while now, the pick and roll has been the centerpiece of nearly every offensive attack in the NBA. The on-ball screen has arguably never been more central than it is right now. According to Second Spectrum, the average NBA team ran 71.7 pick and rolls per 100 possessions during the 2021-22 regular season — a new high-water mark for the player-tracking era. [Read more]( [8. What Would Striking Down Roe v. Wade Mean For The Midterms?]( [SlackChat-0503-4×3]( Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [9. Could The 2022 Cincinnati Reds Be As Bad As The 1899 Cleveland Spiders?]( [St. Louis Cardinals v Cincinnati Reds]( Bad baseball teams come and go, but one ballclub has stood the test of time to be generally regarded as the worst in all of baseball history: the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, who lost 134 of their 154 games during the franchise’s final season of existence. Among their many statistical “feats,” the Spiders had six separate double-digit losing streaks (including one lasting 24 games) and lost 40 of their final 41 games to close out the season. In the more than 120 years that have passed since, no other MLB team has challenged Cleveland’s incredible record of ineptitude. [Read more]( [10. States Aren’t Waiting For The Supreme Court To Rule On Abortion]( [US-abortion-rights-protest]( On Monday night, Politico published a draft opinion from the Supreme Court that indicates a five-justice conservative majority plans to strike down Roe v. Wade and eliminate the constitutional right to abortion. It is not a final ruling, and it can change, but if it does not, the ruling would dramatically restrict abortion access across the country. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Ohio’s GOP Primary And What To Make Of The Supreme Court’s Draft Opinion]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.