FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, April 24, 2022 [1. The San Francisco Giants Face Their Biggest Opponent: Regression]( [San Diego Padres v San Francisco Giants]( The San Francisco Giants have never been an easy team to predict. In the early 2010s, they built a dynasty just a few years after parting ways with maybe the greatest player ever. During that dynastic run, they sandwiched seasons in which they didn’t even make the playoffs between each World Series victory. And just last season, they resurrected themselves out of nowhere with 107 wins, the most in the 140-year history of the franchise. [Read more]( [2. Nobody Had More Style Than Jay Wright]( [Jay Wright of the Villanova Wildcats]( By any objective measure, retiring Villanova coach Jay Wright leaves men’s college basketball as one of the greatest to hold a clipboard in the modern era, a Hall of Famer who elevated a private Catholic research institute in Pennsylvania into one of the capitals of the sport. Under his purview, the Wildcats advanced to four Final Fours and won two national championships over 21 seasons. Only Gonzaga won a higher percentage of games since the 2012-13 season, but unlike the Bulldogs, Villanova converted that success into banners in March. [Read more]( [3. Americans Are Moving On From Jan. 6 — Even If Congress Hasn’t]( [A photo illustration of the US Capitol building during the January 6th insurrection against a gridded background]( Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. [Read more]( [4. The Extreme Bias Of Florida’s New Congressional Map]( [FL-MAP-421-4×3]( Coming soon to a 2024 Republican presidential primary ad near you: Gov. Ron DeSantis stood up to moderate Republicans who wanted to appease liberal Democrats, and he won. [Read more]( [5. Anybody (And Everybody) Can Switch On Pick And Rolls Now]( [National Basketball Association – Philadelphia 76ers v Brooklyn Nets – Wells Fargo Center]( Joel Embiid and James Harden of the Philadelphia 76ers are diametrically opposed as player types. Harden has averaged more than 10 assists a game for two seasons in a row and led the league in isolations per possession every season since at least 2015-16, while Embiid has led the league in post-ups per possession every season since 2019-20. Such players should draw vastly different types of defenders, so when Embiid sets a pick for Harden, switching the defenders guarding each player ought to be anathema to an intelligent defense. [Read more]( [6. The 13 Most Important Republican Senate Primaries To Watch]( [Republican senate candidate for Pennsylvania, David McCormick, stands in front of an American flag.]( We’re almost six months from the 2022 midterm election, and Republicans have big dreams for their potential gains. President Biden’s approval rating is mired in the low 40s, and the GOP already holds a lead in generic ballot polling that history suggests could grow as the election nears. In the race for the Senate, this means that the GOP has a very good shot at gaining at least the one seat it needs to capture the evenly-divided Senate. As such, there’s an especially strong focus on the Republican Senate primaries, as the eventual nominees could be part of a new GOP majority following the November election. [Read more]( [7. Will Winning The MLB Offseason Lead To Actual Winning?]( [Tampa Bay Rays v Chicago Cubs]( When the dust settled on one of the weirdest and most contentious offseasons in MLB history, plenty of familiar faces were headed to new destinations — all of which are still taking some time to get used to. Trevor Story is with the Red Sox? Max Scherzer is a Met? Freddie Freeman is a Dodger?? [Read more]( [8. Can James Harden Still Score Like An MVP?]( [James Harden]( For a little while, it looked like the Philadelphia 76ers would get all of the good and none of the bad. James Harden’s opening run in a Sixers uniform, after his deadline-day trade out of Brooklyn, was a rebuttal to the gripes that have lately attended his here-and-there career. Can’t coexist with a franchise big man? Lost a step from his MVP heyday? Harden put up 26.8 points on 59.2 percent shooting (50 percent from 3-point range) over his first four games in Philly — all wins — while still leaving room for Joel Embiid to get 30 a night. The last game of the streak, against the Cavaliers, went the Sixers’ way for good when Embiid drew a double-team and kicked to Harden, who wiggled in for a floater that gave Philadelphia a 6-point lead with 42 seconds left. Embiid was delighted with the honeymoon phase: “We all just fit together.” [Read more]( [9. The National Fight Against COVID-19 Isn’t Ready To Go To The Sewers]( [COVID WASTEWATER-4×3]( As COVID-19 testing sites close and experts warn that case numbers are capturing a small minority of infections, many public health experts are turning to a newer source that might tell us what’s going on with the virus: our poop. [Read more]( [10. Why Do GOP Lawmakers Still Oppose Legalizing Weed?]( [Marijuana activists hold up an inflatable joint during a rally at the U.S. Capitol]( Today is 4/20, the holiday for stoners and weed enthusiasts around the world. Legalizing marijuana is no longer a fringe issue championed mainly by those partaking in the day’s festivities either. Over the past two decades, we’ve seen a remarkable rise in support for legalization. Polls over the past year from Civiqs, Quinnipiac and Gallup show that roughly 7 in 10 American adults think the use of cannabis should be legal, double the share who thought so 20 years ago. 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