Morning Distribution for Friday, February 25, 2022

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Morning Distribution]( Friday, February 25, 2022 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [0225_POLLA-4×3]( [Stop Using The Midterms To Predict Presidential Elections]( By [Geoffrey Skelley]( and [Jean Yi]( Welcome to [Pollapalooza]( our weekly polling roundup. --------------------------------------------------------------- The 2022 midterm election hasn’t even happened yet, but speculation about the 2024 presidential race is already underway, with [many potential]( [candidates positioning]( themselves [for a possible run]( — and in the case of former President Donald Trump, [doing so quite publicly](. Early general election polls are [already testing Trump against President Biden]( too, with [many questioning]( whether [Biden will even run again]( in 2024, when he’d be 81 years old. Some Democrats [have even gone as far as to venture]( that a rough midterm election for their party — which seems quite possible — might discourage Biden from running again, opening the door for Vice President Kamala Harris or another Democrat to win the party’s nomination. But while a strong Republican performance in 2022 might influence Biden’s thinking on 2024, it’s a mistake to expect the midterm result to predict how the country will vote in the ensuing presidential election. As the chart below shows, there’s little relationship between the margin in the national popular vote for the U.S. House in a midterm election and the national popular vote margin in the next presidential contest. So whatever happens in the House this November, don’t expect it to forecast the results of the next presidential race. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: What Can A Pollster Really Tell Us About American Happiness?]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.