Morning Distribution for Thursday, December 9, 2021

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Morning Distribution]( Thursday, December 9, 2021 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [New England Patriots Hunter Henry cannot make the catch as Atlanta Falcons Erik Harris is called for pass interference]( [The NFL Offenses That Get The Most Out Of Defensive Pass Interference]( By [Josh Hermsmeyer]( Outside of player injuries, penalties may be the most exasperating part of football. While punishing a team for breaking the rules is an important part of ensuring fair play, the arbitrary enforcement of what are often vaguely written laws can have an outsized effect on the outcome of a football game. And among the penalties that have the potential to impact the game the most, defensive pass interference (DPI) tops the list. So far this season, there have been 221 DPI penalties called. The interference penalties have been expensive for defenses and massively beneficial for offenses. This season, DPI flags have cost offending defenses 1.42 expected points added per play and bled off a full 4 percentage points of win probability, on average. For comparison, play-action passes (the most valuable commonly occurring offensive play call) this year are worth just 0.25 EPA per play on average — 17.6 percent of the value of a typical DPI call. DPI is so devastating because, unlike other penalties, the maximum yardage that can be imposed is limited only by the amount of field left between the offense and the end zone. No other penalty can claim the ability to punish a team 99 yards — effectively the entire football field. It’s a special little privilege set aside just for DPI. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Most Americans Don’t Blame God For All The Bad Stuff That Keeps Happening]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.