FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, December 5, 2021 [1. One Misplaced Pawn May Have Just Clinched The World Chess Championship]( [2021-CHESS-CHAMPS-1205-4×3]( We didn’t see much of Ian Nepomniachtchi on Sunday, though the Russian grandmaster is nominally competing for the World Chess Championship in Dubai. He spent much of the day in a private room, hidden away from spectators and cameras, while the chess world watched his position deteriorate on the board. [Read more]( [2. Another Draw Is A Win For Magnus Carlsen]( [2021-CHESS-CHAMPS-1204-4×3]( A peaceful draw was widely predicted for Saturday in the World Chess Championship — a respite just hours after Game 6, the longest game in the history of the championship and the first decisive result in the event in over five years. And the two players delivered: Magnus Carlsen, the defending world chess champion, maintained his lead over challenger Ian Nepomniachtchi on Saturday, as the two played a tidy — and rather perfunctory — 41-move draw in a quick 2.5 hours in Game 7. Halfway through the best-of-14-game match, Carlsen is up 4-3. [Read more]( [3. How The Longest Game In World Chess Championship History Was Won]( [2021-CHESS-CHAMPS-1203-UPDATE-4×3]( Ian Nepomniachtchi took off his blazer on the third move, a record-fast time, and he played with a captured chess piece like it was a fidget spinner. Across the table from him in a glass box in Dubai sat Magnus Carlsen, the world No. 1. The two, locked in the middle of a weeks-long battle for the World Chess Championship, would be sitting there for a while. More than eight hours later, at the postgame press conference with his jacket back on, Nepomniachtchi would wonder what had gone wrong. [Read more]( [4. Turnovers Involve A Lot Of Luck. But Which NFL Teams Are Lucky And Good?]( [Indianapolis Colts v Buffalo Bills]( Football has no shortage of adages. It’s a game of inches. It’s about imposing your will and dominating your opponent. It’s about grit, and winning through toughness. But what if football is also largely about being lucky? [Read more]( [5. Americans Are Worried About Omicron — And Are Ready to Take Most Precautions]( [A photo illustration of coronavirus particles against a gridden background]( Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. [Read more]( [6. We Found The Perfect Recipe For College Football Chaos]( [Iowa Hawkeyes fullback Monte Pottebaum]( College football chaos is in the air. Last weekend brought us plenty of it, with then-No. 5 Michigan rolling over No. 2 Ohio State, No. 7 Oklahoma State storming back on No. 10 Oklahoma late and No. 3 Alabama outlasting Auburn in an Iron Bowl overtime thriller. But the conference championships could have even more pandemonium in store — and create plenty of headaches for the College Football Playoff selection committee when they have to piece together their final rankings. [Read more]( [7. The Nation’s Best Punter Is Changing The Game]( [A photo illustration of San Diego State University's Matt Araiza punting]( Matt Araiza’s favorite punt of the season was an 81-yard boomer. It wasn’t just the distance that the San Diego State junior enjoyed, but what it did to the punt returner. [Read more]( [8. Redistricting Has Maintained The Status Quo So Far. That’s Good For Republicans.]( [redistricting-promo-site]( The “2021 redistricting cycle” is about to become the “2022 redistricting cycle.” As we enter the final month of the year, only 18 states are finished redrawing their congressional districts (not counting the six states with only one district), a consequence of the delayed release of census data. Nevertheless, our view of the U.S. House battlefield for 2022 (and beyond) is starting to come into focus. [Read more]( [9. The Russell Westbrook Trade Is Working Out — For The Wizards]( [Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #1 and Montrezl Harrell #6 celebrate with Kyle Kuzma #33 of the Washington Wizards]( The blockbuster trade that brought Russell Westbrook to Los Angeles hasn’t yet worked out as intended for the Lakers, who are just 12-11 after a Tuesday night win over Sacramento. Though Westbrook has been better of late than he was during his disaster of a start, he’s still at a -2.7 overall rating in our RAPTOR metric, and he’s made for an expectedly awkward fit with LeBron James in halfcourt situations — when James has made it onto the floor. [Read more]( [10. Some Humble Suggestions To Save Chess From Itself]( [2021-CHESS-CHAMPS-1201-4×3]( Your diligent chess correspondent spent the morning watching some chess. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: What The Supreme Court — And Americans — Think About Overturning Roe v. Wade]( Lastly, The Riddler By [Zach Wissner-Gross]( [riddler_4x3_default]( Tonight marks the sixth night of Hanukkah, which means it’s time for some more [Menorah Math]( I have a most peculiar menorah. Like most menorahs, it has nine total candles — a central candle, called the shamash, four to the left of the shamash and another four to the right. But unlike most menorahs, the eight candles on either side of the shamash are numbered. The two candles adjacent to the shamash are both “1,” the next two candles out from the shamash are “2,” the next pair are “3,” and the outermost pair are “4.” The shamash is always lit. How many ways are there to light the remaining eight candles so that sums on either side of the menorah are “balanced”? (For example, one such way is to light candles 1 and 4 on one side and candles 2 and 3 on the other side. In this case, the sums on both sides are 5, so the menorah is balanced.) [Solve it!]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.