FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, November 7, 2021 [1. Buster Posey’s Career Was Short But Elite. Will It Land Him In The Hall Of Fame?]( [Division Series – Los Angeles Dodgers v San Francisco Giants – Game One]( When longtime San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey announced his retirement on Thursday, it marked the end of the line for one of baseball’s most unassuming great players — and a stunning end at that. After missing the 2020 season, Posey had just put the finishing touches on a terrific comeback by helping to lead the Giants to the winningest season in the franchise’s long and storied history. But rather than returning for an encore, the 34-year-old decided to hang up the cleats to spend time with his wife and four children, capping off a career that packed a lot of Hall of Fame-worthy brilliance into a short period of time. [Read more]( [2. Fans Are Back At NFL Games. But Home-Field Advantage Isn’t (Yet).]( [Nasir Adderley]( When the COVID-19 pandemic kept most fans out of NFL stadiums in 2020, home-field advantage was shut out, too: Road teams won more than home teams for the first time since the AFL-NFL merger. In 2021, crowds are back — but the advantage isn’t. [Read more]( [3. How Virginia’s Electorate Shifted Toward Republicans]( [A photo illustration of Glenn Youngkin against a gridded background]( Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. [Read more]( [4. Why Virginia’s And New Jersey’s Elections Could Suggest A Red Wave In 2022]( [2021-LEGIS-REAX-4×3]( Tuesday was a great night for Republicans. The GOP flipped the governor’s office in Virginia, a race often seen as a bellwether for the following year’s midterm elections (though perhaps this is an overreaction). But that wasn’t all. Even more impressively, Republicans came remarkably close to winning the New Jersey governor’s race, which was not thought to be nearly as competitive. [Read more]( [5. Yes, Patrick Mahomes Is Struggling. But No QB Avoided His First Career Slump Longer.]( [Kansas City Chiefs v Tennessee Titans]( Although the Kansas City Chiefs beat the New York Giants on Monday to bring their record to an even 4-4, it’s undeniable that quarterback Patrick Mahomes is in a slump. Since Week 5, the normally unstoppable K.C. signal-caller ranks 24th out of 33 qualified passers in completion percentage, 26th in net yards per attempt, 26th in passer rating, 27th in turnovers per play and 27th in Total QBR. Those are incredibly un-Mahomesian numbers for a guy who ranked either at or near the top of the league in all of those categories since 2018, his first year as the Chiefs’ starter. Not coincidentally, the usually explosive Kansas City offense is averaging a mere 18.5 points per game over the same stretch, which is tied for 24th in the league. [Read more]( [6. NBA Offenses Are In A Funk. Will It Last?]( [Houston Rockets v Dallas Mavericks]( Through two weeks of the NBA season, the league’s first major trend has already emerged: Offensive production is down in a big way. After the league saw mostly steady increases in offensive efficiency dating back a half-decade, that number has cratered to start the year: [Read more]( [7. God And Guns]( [An evangelical Christian wears a rosary and a pin of a gun]( This is a tale of two pastors and two mass shootings. [Read more]( [8. Bing Bong, Who’s There? RJ Barrett.]( [RJ Barrett of the New York Knicks]( It’s pretty difficult for any New York Knickerbocker to fly under the radar. In most recent incarnations of the team, it would have been damn-near impossible for its highest-drafted player since Patrick Ewing to escape the spotlight. But between the presence of star coach and de facto face of the franchise Tom Thibodeau, Julius Randle’s surprising star turn and All-NBA season, Kemba Walker’s homecoming and the emergence of Bing Bong Guy, RJ Barrett has become the forgotten man — or at least an overshadowed one. [Read more]( [9. How Republicans Swept A Bluish State]( [GettyImages-1236310986]( Despite what you may have heard, Virginia can still be a purple state. Republican Glenn Youngkin defeated Democrat and former Gov. Terry McAuliffe in Virginia’s gubernatorial contest on Tuesday, becoming the first Republican to win a statewide office in Virginia since 2009. As of Wednesday morning, Youngkin led by around 2.5 percentage points — pretty much in line with what pre-election polls showed and good enough to become the Old Dominion’s next governor. [Read more]( [10. How The Supreme Court Could Make It Easier To Carry Guns In Public]( [Demonstrators holding letters spelling gun safety in front of the U.S. Supreme Court]( On Wednesday, gun rights is back at the Supreme Court for the first time in over a decade. The justices will be weighing the constitutionality of a New York law that imposes limits on carrying guns outside the home, setting up a showdown over just how far the Second Amendment goes. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: A Good Election Night For Republicans]( Lastly, The Riddler By [Zach Wissner-Gross]( [riddler_4x3_default]( As of today, The Riddler Social Network is being rebranded as μετα — that’s mu epsilon tau alpha. Those Greek letters really augment the brand, don’t you think? A group of 101 people join μετα, and each person has a random, 50 percent chance of being friends with each of the other 100 people. Friendship is a symmetric relationship on μετα, so if you’re friends with me, then I am also friends with you. I pick a random person among the 101 — let’s suppose her name is Marcia. On average, how many friends would you expect each of Marcia’s friends to have? [Solve it!]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.