FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, October 17, 2021 [1. Why The Virginia Governor’s Race Is So Close]( [A photo illustration of a "Welcome to Virginia" sign against a gridded background]( Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. [Read more]( [2. Justin Herbert And Lamar Jackson Are Crushing It … On Different Downs]( [Indianapolis Colts v Baltimore Ravens]( Football fans are in for an early treat this weekend. The Los Angeles Chargers and Baltimore Ravens face off during the early slate of games on Sunday, and the matchup looks to be a great one. According to our quality and game importance metrics, this is the game of the week by a wide margin, scoring a 94 in quality and an 86 in importance. With an overall game score of 90, it’s the highest rated game of Week 6 — and perhaps the most interesting aspect of the matchup involves the quarterbacks. [Read more]( [3. The Fight Over COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates Is Coming To Kids Next]( [Anti-Vaccine Activists Protest In Front Of Massachusetts State House]( It took a small town chiropractor named Charles Brown to help vaccinate millions of kids for decades to come — all because he didn’t want to vaccinate his own. [Read more]( [4. Giants Or Dodgers? Game 5’s Winner Will Be In The World Series Driver’s Seat.]( [Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the San Francisco Giants 7-2 during game 4 of the National League Division Series game.]( This year’s San Francisco Giants-Los Angeles Dodgers division series was billed as a historic clash of dominant regular-season teams, with the two clubs combining to win a record 213 games over the preceding six months. By and large, it has lived up to that expectation: Every win by the perhaps-still-underrated Giants has been followed by a series-tying statement from the Dodgers, leading us to Thursday’s all-or-nothing Game 5. [Read more]( [5. Will The Bucks Run It Back? Can LeBron Win His Fifth Ring? How Our Model Sees This NBA Season.]( [Milwaukee Bucks v Cleveland Cavaliers]( Welcome to the 2021-22 NBA season, folks! And welcome back to FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast, which is based on our RAPTOR player ratings. [Read more]( [6. Is There Anything Candace Parker Can’t Do?]( [WNBA Finals – Game One]( The Chicago Sky are two wins from a title entering Wednesday night’s WNBA Finals game against the Phoenix Mercury. And while Candace Parker is a huge reason for that, it’s notable that her contributions have shifted some over the course of the season. [Read more]( [7. The Cowboys Are Putting It All Together. Is This Their Year?]( [New York Giants v Dallas Cowboys]( The 2021 NFL season marks the 26th since the Dallas Cowboys last made a Super Bowl, improbably giving a franchise known as “America’s Team” the league’s 11th-longest active drought. Through 1995, a Cowboys Super Bowl appearance happened once every 3.75 years on average … and sometimes even more frequently. (In its heyday, Dallas had two separate stretches — 1975 to 1978 and 1992 to 1995 — in which it made three Super Bowls in four years.) By contrast, the past two-and-a-half decades of Dallas football has largely revolved around owner/general manager Jerry Jones’s futile fixation on restoring the Cowboys to their former glory, through a procession of seven different head coaches and 10 primary quarterbacks. All have seen similar results: sporadic playoff appearances, few playoff wins and zero Super Bowls. [Read more]( [8. Why Abortion May Now Motivate Democrats More Than Republicans]( [Demonstrators hold pro-life and pro-choice signs]( Abortion has long motivated Republicans as a political issue. But following the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in early September not to block Texas’s new law banning most abortions once an ultrasound can detect cardiac activity, usually about six weeks into a pregnancy, many have argued that Democrats may become more motivated by reproductive rights. As one Republican pollster recently told the Associated Press, “It is going to be a very motivating issue for women who haven’t typically been single-issue pro-choice voters.” [Read more]( [9. It Looks Like House Democrats Are Worried About The 2022 Midterms]( [Representative John Yarmuth]( The number of U.S. representatives not seeking reelection is now up to 19. Since our last update, GOP Rep. Anthony Gonzalez bowed out in the face of a Republican revolt in his district over his vote to impeach former President Donald Trump, and Democratic Rep. Karen Bass announced her intention to run for mayor of Los Angeles in 2022. And just on Tuesday, Democratic Rep. John Yarmuth announced he would retire from elected office as well. [Read more]( [10. Georgia’s Defense Isn’t Just Good — It Might Be ‘Best Ever’ Good]( [Georgia v Auburn]( College football does not lend itself to consensus, but if you asked enough fans to name the best defense the sport has seen this century, you’d probably get a clear answer: 2011 Alabama. The Crimson’s Tide case is overwhelming, no matter the lens used to examine it. Narratively? That team won a national championship game by a 21-0 score, in a rematch with an LSU team that had previously beaten it 9-6. Professionally? Fourteen players from that defense became NFL draft picks. And statistically? A range of traditional and advanced metrics say 2011 Bama is the century’s best defense. Nick Saban is the defining coach of his era, and that 2011 defense is his masterwork. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: What Happens When Local News Disappears]( Lastly, The Riddler By [Zach Wissner-Gross]( [riddler_4x3_default]( The American League Championship Series of Riddler League Baseball determines one of the teams that will compete in the Riddler World Series. This year’s teams — the Tampa Bay Lines and the Minnesota Twin Primes — are evenly matched. In other words, both teams are equally likely to win each game of the best-of-seven series. On average, how many games will the series last? (Note that the series ends as soon as one team has won four games.) [Solve it!]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.