FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, May 2, 2021 [1. What Went Down During President Biden’s Speech To Congress]( [BidenSpeech-LB-4×3-NO-LIVE]( [Read more]( [2. Advantage, GOP]( [MINORITY-RULE-4×3]( [Read more]( [3. Which States Won — And Lost — Seats In The 2020 Census?]( [REAPPORTIONMENT_4x3]( [Read more]( [4. Congressional Republicans Left Office In Droves Under Trump. Just How Conservative Are Their Replacements?]( [GOP-TURNOVER_4x3]( [Read more]( [5. Biden’s First 100 Days Show How Partisan Things Have Become]( [President Biden Delivers Remarks On Covid-19 Response]( [Read more]( [6. Biden’s Betting On Public Support To Push His Agenda. Polls Show His Big Spending Packages Have It.]( [0430_POLLA-4×3]( [Read more]( [7. Beware Of Humans]( [ZOONOSIS-4×3]( [Read more]( [8. Americans From Both Parties Want Weed To Be Legal. Why Doesn’t The Federal Government Agree?]( [0423_POLLA-4×3]( [Read more]( [9. Everything You Need To Know About The Special Election In Texas’s 6th District]( [Across The U.S. Voters Flock To The Polls On Election Day]( [Read more]( [10. Corbin Burnes Went From Bad To Elite, And He’s Taking The Brewers’ Rotation With Him]( [Minnesota Twins v Milwaukee Brewers]( [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [There’s No Consensus On These QBs]( Lastly, The Riddler By [Zach Wissner-Gross]( [riddler_4x3_default]( You’re playing a game of [cornhole]( with your friends, and it’s your turn to toss the four bean bags. For every bean bag you toss onto your opponents’ board, you get 1 point. For every bag that goes through the hole on their board, you get 3 points. And for any bags that don’t land on the board or through the hole, you get 0 points. Your opponents had a terrible round, missing the board with all their throws. Meanwhile, your team currently has 18 points — just 3 points away from victory at 21. You’re also playing with a special house rule: To win, you must score exactly 21 points, without going over. Based on your history, you know there are three kinds of throws you can make: - An aggressive throw, which has a 40 percent chance of going in the hole, a 30 percent chance of landing on the board and a 30 percent chance of missing the board and hole. - A conservative throw, which has a 10 percent chance of going in the hole, an 80 percent chance of landing on the board and a 10 percent chance of missing the board and hole. - A wasted throw, which has a 100 percent chance of missing the board and hole. For each bean bag, you can choose any of these three throws. Your goal is to maximize your chances of scoring exactly 3 points with your four tosses. What is the probability that your team will finish the round with exactly 21 points and declare victory? [Solve it!]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.