FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, March 7, 2021 [1. Why Did Republicans Outperform The Polls Again? Two Theories.]( [MISSING-GOP-SUPPORT-4×3]( Pollsters are perplexed. Many believed that the polling errors we saw in 2016 had been adequately addressed in time for the 2020 presidential election. But once again, the polls underestimated support for Donald Trump (and support for Republicans across the board). Now, more than three months out from the election, we still don’t have a great sense as to why. [Read more]( [2. Why QAnon Has Attracted So Many White Evangelicals]( [QVANGELICALS-4×3]( One week after his first drop, Q was already quoting scripture. “The LORD is my shepherd, I lack nothing,” Q posted on the imageboard site 4chan. The line was from Psalm 23, possibly the most well-known of the 150 psalms, and a beacon of hope for Christians going through challenging times. Is it any wonder that the fringe conspiracy theory QAnon has attracted true believers in every sense of the word? [Read more]( [3. Why Republicans Don’t Fear An Electoral Backlash For Opposing Really Popular Parts Of Biden’s Agenda]( [Minimum Wage]( Republicans in the U.S. House last week unanimously opposed President Biden’s economic stimulus bill, even though polls show that the legislation is popular with the public. The U.S. Senate will consider the bill soon — and it looks like the overwhelming majority of Republicans in that chamber will oppose it as well. And it’s not just the stimulus. House Republicans also last week overwhelmingly opposed a bill to ban discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity. And the GOP seems poised to oppose upcoming Democratic bills to make it easier to vote and spend hundreds of billions to improve the nation’s infrastructure. All of those ideas are popular with the public, too. [Read more]( [4. Why Fallout From Texas’s Winter Storm Won’t Hurt Republicans At The Ballot Box in 2022]( [Senate Homeland Security Committee Hearing On Jan. 6 Attack On Capitol]( Now that the worst of Texas’s winter storm is over, the question on the minds of many is what — or who — is at fault for the state’s lack of preparedness to a weeklong storm that left many without power or water. It’s too soon to know exactly how this will all unfold, but at least one recent survey shows that neither Gov. Greg Abbott nor Sen. Ted Cruz (who infamously fled the country for sunny Cancún “to be a good dad”) looks likely to suffer that much electorally. But Democrats are already busy trying to use Republicans’ response to the storm as ammo in the upcoming campaign season. [Read more]( [5. What Did CPAC Tell Us About The Future Of The GOP?]( [SlackChat_0301-4×3]( Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [6. How Much Longer Can This Era Of Political Gridlock Last?]( [PARTISAN-STALEMATE-4×3]( Democrats may have a narrow majority in both the House and the Senate for the next two years, but it’s nothing near the margin they hoped for. And the likelihood that Democrats keep both the House and the Senate in 2022 are low, as the president’s party almost always loses seats in the midterm elections. [Read more]( [7. How Marjorie Taylor Greene Won, And Why Someone Like Her Can Win Again]( [Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) And House Candidate Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) Hold Campaign Event In Dallas, Georgia]( Before Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene set off a metal detector outside the House chamber, lost her committee assignments, or hung a transphobic sign in the halls of the Capitol complex, she was just a candidate in a Republican primary in Georgia. [Read more]( [8. What Americans Think About The Minimum Wage And Their Governors]( [0305_POLLA-4×3]( Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. And this week, we’re switching up the format a little; let us know your thoughts on it (or any other form you’d like to see Pollapalooza take) by shooting us an email. [Read more]( [9. This Year’s Big Ten Has Big Potential]( [Illinois v Michigan]( The best men’s basketball team in the Big Ten Conference over the past quarter century is in the throes of its worst year since the first season of its esteemed coach, so you could be forgiven for assuming that the rest of the conference might also struggle. Instead, the Big Ten hasn’t missed a beat. [Read more]( [10. Which NBA Teams’ Schedules Get Tougher (Or Easier) From Here?]( [New York Knicks v Detroit Pistons]( Although there have been moments of uncertainty for the NBA as it plays its 2020-21 regular season outside last summer’s bubble, the league has successfully reached the midpoint of the schedule with this weekend’s All-Star break. Looking ahead, the teams also now know who they’ll be playing in the second half, after the league released its remaining schedule last week. That means we can look at which teams’ paths are due to be easier — or more difficult — over the rest of the season. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Tiger Woods Doesn’t Need A Comeback]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.