Morning Distribution for Friday, March 5, 2021

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Morning Distribution]( Friday, March 5, 2021 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [New York Knicks v Detroit Pistons]( [Which NBA Teams’ Schedules Get Tougher (Or Easier) From Here?]( By [Neil Paine]( Although there have been [moments of uncertainty]( for the NBA as it plays its 2020-21 regular season outside last summer’s bubble, the league has successfully reached the midpoint of the schedule with this weekend’s All-Star break. Looking ahead, the teams also now know who they’ll be playing in the second half, after the league [released its remaining schedule]( last week. That means we can look at which teams’ paths are due to be easier — or more difficult — over the rest of the season. To help quantify this, I used our [classic Elo ratings]( which measure a team’s strength at any given time based on game results. Adjusting for [home-court advantage]( I calculated the average opponent strength for each club in both the first and second halves of the season. In the following chart, teams above the trendline will face tougher opponents (on average) over the rest of the season, while teams below it will see their schedule ease up some in the second half: Among the outliers above the line, the Orlando Magic and New York Knicks — and, to a slightly lesser extent, the San Antonio Spurs, Portland Trail Blazers and Chicago Bulls — will see their schedules get notably harder over the remainder of the regular season. After the home-court adjustment, the Magic will have gone from an average opposing Elo of 1488 (second-easiest in the league) in the first half to 1535 (hardest in the league) in the second half. Not that it’s likely to matter for them — Orlando is 13-23 with the second-worst record in the East and a [2 percent chance]( of making the playoffs. However, for the Knicks, Bulls, Spurs and Blazers, it could actually make a difference in the postseason picture, since all are currently seeded in line to either make the playoffs or at least enter the [play-in tournament]( for the final two slots in each conference. The Knicks had the NBA’s easiest first-half schedule (an average opposing Elo of 1481) and are due to face the third-toughest second-half slate (1520 average opposing Elo), behind only the Magic and Spurs. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Politics: How The Black Church Has Shaped American Politics]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.